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One Metric That Could Make the Difference in Game 5

So far in the series, Tyrese Haliburton has been the headline. He’s averaging 24.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 11.0 assists—well above his regular-season marks of 18.6/3.5/9.2. On the other side, Knicks star Jalen Brunson has also delivered, averaging 33.3 points per game despite his team trailing 3-1. That’s a significant jump from his regular-season average of 26.0.

There’s one metric, though, that helps explain it all.

Jalen Brunson, 30.5 Points

Brunson’s points line is 30.5 tonight, a line he’s gone over 3 of 4 games.

The standout metric for Brunson is volume—specifically, his field goal attempts. During the regular season, he averaged 18.5 shots per game. That number jumped to 22.4 attempts in the first two rounds of the playoffs and has remained high at 22.3 in this series. But in his two lowest-scoring games so far—23 points in Game 3 and 31 in Game 4—he took 18 and 19 shots. In contrast, he put up 36 and 43 points in Games 1 and 2, taking 25 and 27 attempts, respectively.

Brunson’s performance clearly shifts with his shot volume—but the difference is even more dramatic than you might expect. Take a look at the chart below.

We can’t realistically expect Brunson to take 28+ shots tonight (though it’d be nice), but it’s fair to anticipate more than the 18 and 19 attempts he logged in the last two games. The ranges above give us a general sense of his scoring potential based on volume—but what’s his true sweet spot in field goal attempts when facing tonight’s 30.5-point line? Let’s break it down by shot attempt range, after this note from this week’s newsletter advertiser.

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Brunson’s Shot Volume

• 21 shot attempts: 10 games this season, averaged 29.4 (scored 22, 24, 26, 27(x2), 28, 31, 36(x2), 37), 40% hit rate

• 22 shot attempts: 2 games this season, averaged 37 (scored 36, 38), 100% hit rate

• 23 shot attempts: 5 games this season, averaged 24 (scored 20, 22, 26, 23, & 29), 0% hit rate

• 24 shot attempts: 3 games this season, averaged 27 (scored 21, 29, 31), 33% hit rate

• 25 shot attempts: 3 games this season, averaged 37.7 (scored 31, 39, 43), 100% hit rate

• 26 shot attempts: 3 games this season, averaged 38.3 (scored 44, 39, 32), 100% hit rate

Apparently, 24-shot attempts aren’t the sweet spot—but 22 and anything slightly above 24 seems to be. The final volume metric worth noting is his overall playoff performance. Brunson has hit the 30.5-point line in 50% of his playoff games this year. In the 8 games he went over, he took 25 or more shots in 7 of them (!). In the 8 games he stayed under, he had 20 or fewer attempts in 6. The pattern is clear: volume is the key. And in a must-win game, we’re betting the volume will be there for Brunson to clear his points line tonight.

Oilers/Stars Game 5: Mikko Rantanen

Is Mikko Rantanen broken? Rantanen was lights out against Colorado and Winnipeg, racking up 9 goals, 19 points, 39 shots on goal, and averaging 3 shots on goal per game. Against the Oilers, it’s been a different story. He only has 2 points in the first four games of this series, both assists, and is averaging just 2 shots on goal per game.

The glimmer of hope for Rantanen? He has 10 shot attempts (6, 4 shot attempts) in the last two games, and had just 7 total in the first two. A sign of life? Possible. He also played 23 minutes in game four.

When he has 5+ shot attempts in a game this season and plays over 21 minutes, he averages 3.5 shots on goal, and has a goal in in 10 of 32 games, with 3 multi-goal games mixed in.

Lastly, when Rantanen has 3 shots on goal or more in a game and plays more than 21 minutes, he has a goal in 10 of 28 games (36%).

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MLB Head-to-Head Data Sheet for May 29th

🔥 Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups for May 29th 🔥

⚾️ Albies: .500 vs Sanchez (7 PA) — Hit in 12 straight, 23 HRR 💥
⚾️ Ozuna: .400 vs Sanchez (11 PA) — 11 hits, 23 HRR in last 8 🔥
⚾️ Schwarber: .444 vs Sale (9 PA) — .301 vs LHP this year, 9 HRR in last 3
⚾️ Castellanos: 6-for-7 vs Sale (!!) — .333 vs LHP in ‘25, 5 hits in last 3

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See you Tuesday!