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Partner Plays, Ladder Tool

Instead of doing an NFL trend for every game like we usually do on Fridays, took three plays from our partners and used our NFL ladder tool to find additional value. Let’s go!

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards

@MailMainLocks posted this play on Friday, read his write-up to understand the play better, and then see our ladder breakdown below.

Chris Godwin Ladder

On our website, you’ll find the ladder research tool, where you can see the odds and hit rates for every player for any prop.

MailMan likes Godwin to get 63 yards against the Saints, but what if we looked at 70, 80, 90, or more yards? Godwin has averaged 77 yards per game this season, and the Saints rank 27th in the NFL in passing yards against per game, so Mayfield should be able to air it out. Several receivers have gone for big games against New Orleans ⬇️

Smith-Schuster had 130, DeVonta Smith had 79, CeeDee Lamb had 90 yards and Jalen Tolbert had 82.

With Godwin’s yards per game, and the Saints’ apparent willingness to let other teams sling the ball on them, there’s reason to investigate the ladder chart to find additional value. Godwin to get 70 yards you can find at +115, 80 yards at +175 and 90 yards at +260.

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Cole Kmet Receiving Yards

@markus_markets posted this play on Friday, read his write-up to understand the play better, and then see our ladder breakdown below.

Cole Kmet Ladder

Here is Cole Kmet’s NFL ladder screenshot from the Props.Cash website:

Markus likes Kmet to go for at least 31 yards, but there could be some additional value in larger lines. In addition to Markus’ great write-up, Kmet has hit 31 yards in three straight games and 50 & 70 yards in two games.

No tight end has gone for 50 yards against Jacksonville this year, but outside of Dalton Kincaid, they haven’t faced a tight end that is integral to their offense like Kmet is in Chicago. These are how they rank by receiving yards through the first 5 weeks of the season:

1. Kmet, 219 yards (6th in the NFL)

2. Kincaid, 166 yards (16th)

3. Smith, 140 yards (22nd)

4. Akins, 98 yards (26th)

5. Alie-Cox, 59 yards (39th)

6. Granson, 49 yards (54th)

Kmet is the first top ten and first top fifteen receiving tight end to face Jacksonville this season, and as we said, Jacksonville can’t defend the pass.

You can find Kmet at +255 and +425 odds for 50 and 60 yards, respectively.

AJ Brown Receiving Yards

@JG4President posted this play on Wednesday, read his write-up to understand the play better, and then see our ladder breakdown below!

AJ Brown Ladder

As good as the Cleveland Browns’ secondary has been, they’ve still allowed opposing teams’ number-one receivers to go for big yardage against them.

Terry McLaurin had 112 yards, Malik Nabers had 78 yards, Brian Thomas had 84 yards and they held CeeDee Lamb to 61 yards but that was in week one.

Considering Joel’s write-up, and how number one receivers have faired against Cleveland, AJ Brown's ladder up to 100 yards could be worth a look. Brown has 100 or more yards in 6 of his last 20 home games (30%), 90 or more yards in 10 of his last 20 home games (50%), and 70 or more yards in 11 of his last 20 home games (55%).

In his last 20 games overall, both home and away, Brown has 100 or more yards in 8 of 20 games, 90 or more yards in 10 of 20 games, and 80 or more yards in 11 of 20 games.

We’re intrigued to see how these three ladder suggestions play out in week 6!