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Diving Into Data for the NBA, NHL, and MLB

Today’s newsletter is driven by storylines, and capped off my detailed data. In the NBA, two legends meet again with Lebron’s Lakers taking on Curry’s Warriors. There are three games with important playoff implications tonight in the NHL, and we dug into some data for all three. And inspired by Shohei Ohtani last night, we look at the only theme night in baseball tonight, and connect some dots to make the data fit.

Let’s get into it, starting in the NBA.

LeBron Versus Steph

Including the playoffs and the play-in, tonight is the 56th meeting between Steph Curry and LeBron James. Curry has the slight edge, with a 29-26 record (in the regular season, LeBron edges out Curry 14-12), and both players have interesting data when they play each other. For Curry, his PRA (points+assists+rebounds) stands out, and for LeBron, it’s his 3PTM (3 pointers made).

LeBron, 1.5 3PTM

Dating back to 2021, LeBron has 17 regular-season games against Curry, and in those games, he’s gone over this 1.5 3-point line 14 times, averaging 2.7 made threes.

Lately, he’s struggled a little bit. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged 1.3 made threes and has failed to go over this line in 6 of 10 games.

But as you can see, he’s gone over in back-to-back games, so could he be getting primes just in time to play the best shooter of all time? It also helps that he’s at home, where he averages 2.6 made threes, going over this line in 74% of his home games.

A far cry from his road average of 1.7 threes per game, where he’s only gone over this line in just 42% of his games.

Curry, 35.5 PRA

In his last 18 games against the Lakers, Steph has averaged 40.8 PRA and has gone over this 35.5 line in 14 of 18 games.

Over his last 5 games, he’s struggled in four of the five. The one he didn’t was vintage Curry: 52 points, 32 in the first half, 10 rebounds, 8 assists, and 70 total PRA.

Another split for Curry ahead of tonight’s game that looks good for him is his data on the road with one day’s rest. He’s racked up a 40.3 PRA average with those parameters, going over this line 63% of the time.

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Playoff Implications in the NHL

Three games in the NHL jump out as important for the NHL playoff picture tonight:

• Tampa Bay is three points back of Toronto for the division lead, and Ottawa is fighting to clinch a spot.

• Pittsburgh’s season is likely done, and St Louis is likely safe, but a Blues loss combined with a Flames win tonight (against Anaheim) would bring Calgary within 3 points of St Louis for the final playoff spot in the West.

• Calgary is home to Anaheim, needing a win and like we said, hoping for a Blues loss.

Tampa at Ottawa

Nikita Kucherov, 2.5 Shots on Goal

Tampa needs a win to stay in the division race with Toronto and Florida, and Kucherov has great head-to-head data in the shots on goal department against Ottawa.

He’s gone over this line in all three games against Ottawa this season, averaging over 4 shots per game. And dating back to 2023, Kucherov has 15 shots in his last three games in Ottawa.

Tim Stutzle, 0.5 Points

Can he make it 9 straight? Stutzle has a point in 8 straight games against the Lightning dating back to 2022.

And he could use a bit of a breakout. He has no points in his last three games, and just one point in his last 5. The positive for Stutzle is that he’s averaged 1.3 points per game at home, compared to 0.7 on the road.

Pittsburgh at St Louis

Jordan Kyrou, 0.5 Points

Kyrous is the guy in St. Louis, but has just one point in his last three games after racking up 12 in his previous 6 games.

He will be looking to keep his point streak alive at home, as he has at least one point in 9 straight home games.

Anaheim at Calgary

Morgan Frost, 0.5 Goals

Frost hasn’t scored since February 8th! That’s 19 games without a goal, even though he’s averaged 1.6 shots on goal in that span and has 8 games with multiple shots on goal. If there’s a spot for him to break the slump, it’s tonight against Anaheim.

In his time with Philly, Frost scored in both games this season against the Ducks, and has 4 goals in his last 5 games against Anaheim.

Theme Night in Milwaukee

Last night, Shohei Ohtani did Shohei Ohtani things. It was his bobblehead night, and he walked it off in the 9th with an absolute bomb to center field. As Joe Davis said on the call, ‘inevitable’.

It got us thinking about tonight, and whether there are promotional nights that we could tap into to find interesting data for the newsletter. There is only one tonight, and it’s in Milwaukee:

How are we going to find something that is related to Hockey Night in Milwaukee?! Simple, we look back at last year! Last season’s hockey night was April 26th against the Yankees, and young shortstop Joey Ortiz walked it off.

So Ortiz is our focus tonight.

Joey Ortiz, 0.5 Singles

Ortiz has 5 hits in 6 games this season, and 4 of them have been singles. He’ll face Reds starter Nick Lodolo tonight, and although he actually has a home run in 1 of 2 plate appearances against Lodolo, he’s not known as a power bat, so we’re highlighting the single here to be safe.

The walk-off homer at last year’s Hockey Night is a lot to ask, so we’re tampering with our expectations with the single. Can Ortiz repeat some of that Hockey Night magic tonight?! We’ll see!

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See you Tuesday!