Close Spreads in March Madness

Not including the 9 vs. 8 game between Creighton and Louisville (-3), which kicks off the tournament, there are six games in the round of 64 with a spread of 3 or less.

• VCU vs BYU (-2.0)

• UCSD vs Michigan (-2.5)

• Baylor vs MSST (-1.0)

• (-1.5) CSU vs MEM

• (-2.0) UNC vs MISS

• XAV vs ILL (-3.0)

That’s where we focused our player prop research for today, starting with VCU vs BYU.

VCU: Zeb Jackson, 9.5 Points

Jackson is averaging 10.4 points per game this season, and 11.8 in his last 5 even though he’s gone under this number in his last 2. At no point this season has Jackson gone under this in three straight games, so he’ll be looking to avoid that today. He’s a graduate student, with plenty of experience in the tournament, going to the Elite Eight with Michigan in 2021.

BYU is 197th in guard defense, allowing 14.7 points per game to guards, and 15.96 points to guards in their last 5 games, good for 285th in the nation.

UCSD: Hayden Gray, 10.5 Points

Gray is coming off a season-high 22 points and as the true guard in the San Diego backcourt, he gets the best matchup in this game. Michigan ranks 233rd in the nation in guard defense, allowing 14.95 points per game. Although Gray is unlikely to put 22 again because he shot 87% from three in that game, he can still get to 11 points, a marker he’s hit in 62% of his games this season.

He’s averaging 4.3 three attempts per game this season. His point average is 12 a game when he attempts just his average threes, and he’s hit this line in 68% of those games.

Seeking impartial news? Meet 1440.

Every day, 3.5 million readers turn to 1440 for their factual news. We sift through 100+ sources to bring you a complete summary of politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a brief 5-minute email. Enjoy an impartial news experience.

Join for free today!

Baylor: VJ Edgecombe, 16.5 Points

Take good players to do good things. Edcome is only averaging 15 points per game this season, but he closed out his conference season strong, averaging 15.8 points per game and even better 17.8 points per game when attempting 10 or more shots in a game (he’s averaging 11.6 field goal attempts).

Mississippi State is also one of the worst teams in guard defense this season, especially in their last 5 games.

• 322nd this season, 15.94 points per game

• 347th in their last 5 games, 17.76 points per game

Colorado State: Jalen Lake, 1.5 3PTM

Jalen Lake has been a weapon from three this season, shooting 38% from three and averaging 1.9 made threes per game this season. If he chucks up attempts, you have to feel good about this. He averages 5.4 made threes per game this season and with 4 attempts or more this season, he’s averaging 2.1 made threes and clearing this line in 71% of the time. With 5 attempts, it’s much better at 78% and 2.3 made threes average.

He’ll face a Memphis team allowing 2.12 made threes per game to guards in their last 5 games, ranking them 253rd in the country.

UNC: RJ Davis, 2.5 3PTM

Davis has 3 made threes in 7 of his last 8 games and gets a great matchup against Ole Miss, who rank 308th in the nation in 3-point defense against guards. Ole Miss allows 2.16 threes per game and 2.39 threes in their last 5 games (305th in the nation). Davis, who averages 5.7 attempts per game this season, has hit this line in 7 straight games with 4 or more attempts.

Xavier: Dailyn Swain, 4.5 Rebounds

This is all about recent play.

The 6’8 Swain has cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 6.2 rebounds and an even better 6.6 rebounds in his last 5. Illinois allows 5.84 to guard-forwards, and will likely battle with 6’8 Canadian Will Riley for boards, who only averages 4.2 per game this season.

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

See you Tuesday!