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Good Matchups, Bad Matchups in the Play-In

Paolo Banchero, Jimmy Butler, and Anthony Davis have good data for the first four play-in games. Coby White is on the other end of that - his history against Miami suggests he might be in tough for one particular prop. We have the data and the reasoning for all 4 matchups below, starting with Banchero.

Paolo Banchero, 30.5 Points

Banchero has averaged 33.3 points per game this season against the Hawks, registering 31 or more points in all three contests against Atlanta that he suited up in.

It’s no surprise - no team in the NBA gives up more points to power forwards, allowing 25.17 points per game to the position this season. And in their last 5 games, 28.02, which is not the worst (26th) but is more than their season average.

How has he had this much success against Atlanta? There are two key factors: he’s averaged 11 free-throw attempts, and has averaged 8 3-point attempts in those three games. Under those averages this season, he’s averaging 36.7 points per game.

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Jimmy Butler, 22.5 Points

Butler is two weeks removed from a great game against the Grizzlies:

• 27 points

• 6 rebounds

• 4 assists

• 65% field goal percentage

• 50% from three

• 12/12 from the line

The statistic that jumps off the page from the list above is his dominance at the line and his ability to get to the line. And then if we look at his last 5 games with 8 or more free throw attempts, it translates to him averaging 26.8 points per game.

Can we expect more of the same tonight? The Grizzlies allow the 3rd most points per game to small forwards (23.17).

Coby White, 2.5 Threes

White has cleared this line 50% of the time this season, averaging 2.9 threes, and has cleared this line 51% of the time at home, averaging 2.8 threes. Not overly encouraging. And then there’s his matchup with the Heat; in three games against Miami this season, he’s only hit 4 threes, and they were all in the same game. In the other two games, he went 0/13 from three.

And in their last 5 games, the Heat have held shooting guards to 1.27 threes per game, the best mark in the NBA. This season, they’re 8th, allowing 3.14 threes per game to the position.

He is going to play a ton of minutes tonight, and in games where he plays 35 or more minutes, he’s averaging only 3.0 threes per game, clearing this line 55% of the time.

Anthony Davis, 11.5 Rebounds

When he played for the Lakers this season, Anthony Davis shared the court four times with Domontas Sabonis, and in those four games, he went over this 11.5 rebound line three times, averaging 14.5 rebounds per game.

He is still working his way back from injuries, but should see significant minutes in a must-win game. This season, between the Lakers and Mavs, he’s averaged 12.7 rebounds per game when playing 34 or more minutes.

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See you Thursday!