Can History Repeat Itself?

We chose this week’s MLB trends with one thing in mind: history. We strictly chose all the trends based on head-to-head data between batters and pitchers, and then pitchers versus entire teams. But first…

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Matchups Lead the Way

There are 12 games in baseball today, 4 of divisional games. A lot of historical data to go through for batter and pitcher matchups, let’s get into the trends.

1 PM: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

The Cleveland Guardians play the Detroit Tigers at the beginning of today’s slate, and Jose Ramirez has a solid head-to-head matchup.

Ramirez has 2 singles, 2 home runs, and 3 RBIs in 11 plate appearances against Tigers starter Jack Flaherty. If you’re feeling it, Ramirez is also in the longest home run drought of his season. Can he snap it today?

1 PM: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

The New York Mets play the Washington Nationals at 1:10 PM, and Brandon Nimmo comes into this game with 12 plate appearances against Washington's starter MacKenzie Gore.

As you can see in the chart above, Nimmo’s batting average is 30 points higher this season against lefties than against righties. And lefties have had much more success against Gore than righties (.310 average for lefties, .266 against righties). Nimmo has also been scorching hot lately, going over this line in 5 straight games and 15 of his last 20.

3:45 PM: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts

On June 27, 2023, Kevin Gausman cooked the San Francisco Giants for 12 strikeouts. LaMonte Wade Jr might just be shaking in his boots today, he contributed 3 of those strikeouts that day, and today Gausman is in a spot to take advantage of this team once again.

The Giants have also seen their strikeout rates rise recently; they’ve been ranked 17th in strikeouts versus righties this season, but that’s shot up to 8th most in their last 15 games and 9th most in their last 30.

And then there’s Gausman’s recent data: he’s gone over this line in 6 of his last 10 games and has 10 or more strikeouts in 3 of his last 5 road starts.

6:50 PM: Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Yandy Diaz has had decent success against southpaw Nestor Cortes. In 31 plate appearances, Diaz has a .400 average and a .833 slug percentage.

Yandy is coming out of a cold spell, he’s gone over this line in 3 of his last 4 games after going under in 6 straight.

Diaz also has much better numbers against lefties this season than he does against righties (.333 average versus lefties, .250 average against righties).

Euro 2024 Final Trends

Spain versus England is going to be a special game on Sunday. Who wins?

We have two trends for the game, one for each team.

Phil Foden Over 0.5 Shots On Goal

If you watched the Semi-Final, Foden was a man on a mission in the first half. He hit the post and had two other shots on goal, and we’re hoping he can continue his upward play in the final on Sunday.

Lamine Yamal Over 0.5 Shots On Goal

Yamal scored a stunner in Spain’s Semi-Final, and the 16-year-old has the pace and skill to get past England’s questionable backline on Sunday. He has a shot on goal in three games, I think he can make it four in Sunday’s final.

WNBA Trend of the Day

Breanna Stewart gets a wonderful matchup tonight, and she is our WNBA trend of the day.

Breanna Stewart Over 28.5 Points+Rebounds

Stewart has gone over this line in 6 of her last 9 matchups against Chicago and cooked the Sky for 47 points and rebounds on June 4th.

Stewart has also gone over this line in 4 of her last 5 games.

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Tuesday Recap

We went 2-5 this week. Brutal. 105/208 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th—50%.

MLB Recap

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ The Phillies win 10-1, get 12 hits, and yet Harper goes 0-4 in his return. Tough.

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ The Astros had 7 hits, scored 4 runs, and Alvarez went 0-4. Tough again.

Brayan Bello Over 5.5 Strikeouts ✅ Bello gave up 9 hits and 5 earned to Oakland, but all struck out 11 batters.

Jake Irvin Under 5.5 Hits Allowed ❌ Irvin got lit up by the Mets, giving up 9 hits and 6 earned over 6 innings.

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ The Dodgers got torched 10-1, Freeman went 0-3.

Euro Recap

Laime Yamal Over 0.5 Shots on Goal ✅ Yamal scored a beauty, becoming the youngest player in Euro history to score at the tournament.

Cody Gakpo Over 0.5 Shots on Goal ❌ Cody, Cody, Cody…