MLB Trends Plus Who Will Win the Euro 2024 Semi-Finals?

Author

Michael Mohorovich
July 09, 2024

Onto the Semi-Finals and Game 90.67

Euro 2024 Semi Finals start later today, and somehow, teams in Major League Baseball are already averaging 90 games played per season. Today, on average, teams are playing game 90.67

Games Played

Amount of Teams Who Have Played That Many Games

89

Four

90

Ten

91

Ten

92

Four

93

One

94

One (Sorry, Padres fans)

In today’s newsletter, we have Euro Semi-Finals trends and MLB trends. Three of them came from our partner on X, @ChaseTheLock. But first…

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One of our partners on X, @ChaseTheLock, provided us with some trends for today’s newsletter. You can find those down below, but the first two are from the Props.Cash team.

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases

He’s back…we think. Today is the day Harper is eligible to come off the injured list, and it appears like he’s set to do so.

Before he went on the injured list, he was on fire, going over this line in 10 of his last 15 games with 41 total bases over his last 10 games.

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Yordan Alvarez should be fresh today against the Marlins; the Astros didn’t play yesterday and Alvarez was given a day off the day beore. Yordan has gone over this H+R+R line in 7 of his last 10 games.

Alvarez also gets a great matchup against Marlins starter Trevor Rogers, who has let lefties hit him to the tune of a .291 average.

As we said, one of our partners on X, @ChaseTheLock, provided us with some trends for today’s newsletter. Here they are:

Brayan Bello Over 5.5 Strikeouts

@ChaseTheLock likes this matchup for Bello, as you can see Oakland strikeouts the 2nd most this season against right-handed pitchers.

Here’s his write-up on this trend:

I love the Red Sox right hander to soar over his strikeout prop tonight. No question he’s been struggling a bit this season but he was pushed back form his last start and given an extra couple days off, switched up some mechanics, and just came back to his 4-Seamer for the first time this season. If he can get this pitch going, it would be huge for his development! OAK is striking out the 2nd most this season vs. RHP (26.8%) and are striking out the 3rd most in the L15 vs. RHP. Oakland had a travel day to Boston from Oakland yesterday, expect a slow start from Oakland, and a hot start from Bello and the Sox! 

And the corresponding graph:

Jake Irvin Under 5.5 Hits Allowed

@ChaseTheLock posts several plays on X every day, here’s just one of them:

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases

Here’s his write-up on this trend:

Getting plus money on Freddie Free Bags is crazy! Freddie gets Zach Wheeler, which may scare some people away, but his history against Wheeler is impressive. In 69 PA, Freddie is batting .404 with 15 1B, 4 2B, 2 HR against Wheeler. Added bonus? The wind is soaring out to left center field in Philadelphia tonight. The splits also favor Freddie, since he hits .333 against RHP (.248 vs. LHP) and Zach Wheeler allows .227 vs. LHB (.154 against RHB). Freddie has hit this line in 5 of his last 10 and looks to get back in the win column after missing this line the last 2. 

And the corresponding graph:

Spain versus France, England versus Netherlands. Who books their ticket to the Euro 2024 Final?

Spain vs France Trend: Laime Yamal Over 0.5 Shots on Goal

The 16-year-old phenom has not looked out of place at all in this tournament, quite the opposite. He’s been outstanding.

Yamal has gone over this line in back-to-back games in the tournament, with three shots on goal. He didn’t have any shots on goal in the first two games, but the data suggests he’s just getting more and more comfortable as the games go on.

England vs Netherlands Trend: Cody Gakpo Over 0.5 Shots on Goal

Gakpo has trumped Memphis Depay as the biggest threat on this Netherlands side in this tournament, and we think he can continue his hot pace in the Semi-Finals.

Gakpo has at least one shot on goal in every game of the tournament, with 8 shots on goal overall.

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Tuesday Recap

Our July 4th newsletter, with 13 trends, went 7-5 (with one void). We improved to 103/201 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th—52%.

MLB Recap

Aaron Judge Over 2.5 Total Bases ❌ 0/4 on July 4th. Nice.

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ The matchup for Alvarez was perfect, but he had three walks (hit by pitch, walked normally twice).

Carlos Correa Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Correa had a hit and two runs to go green.

Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Total Bases ✅ Kwan went 3-4, 6 total bases.

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Devers never got on base, but two sac flies turned this green.

Jameson Taillon Over 5.5 Hits Allowed ❌ Taillon pitched a good game, 7 full innings with 4 hits and two earned runs against.

Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Arraez had two hits, which was enough.

Zach Neto Over 0.5 Hits ✅ Neto went 1-4, but that’s all we needed.

Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 K’s ❌ Burnes had 6, close but not cigar.

Logan Webb Over 5.5 K’s ✅ Webb came through, finishing with 6 K’s through 7 solid innings.

Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases ✅ Witt went 3-4, with a double, single, and bottom of the 9th inning home run. 7 total bases, easy over.

Tobias Meyers Under 5.5 Hits Allowed ❌ Tough start for Meyers against a bad Rockies team, he gave up 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 6 innings. This one went red.

Will Smith Over 0.5 Singles VOID Smith didn’t play, there is nothing we can do about that.