The 7-3 Buffalo Bills and the 5-5 Houston Texans kick off Week 12 tonight. Both teams rank in the bottom five defensively across multiple player prop categories, and those are the angles we’re spotlighting in today’s newsletter. One prop in particular stands out above the rest — and we’ll be breaking that one down in detail. Here’s a hint: Run, Allen, Run!

You’ll also find NBA player prop trends from select partners below, and NHL sheets from @WallaBets.

Now, let’s get into it.

The Bills or Texans rank bottom 5 in these categories:

Let’s kick things off with the quarterback rush yards allowed prop and Texans quarterback Davis Mills.

Mills’ rushing yards line is 8.5, and in his two starts this season, Mills has averaged 17 yards per game, going over this number in both games.

The Bills rank 31st in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, giving up 39 yards last week to Baker Mayfield. Yes, the previous four quarterbacks to face them before last week went under this number, but the first five quarterbacks to face them this season all went over this number.

Overall, 6 of 10 QBs to face them have had at least 9 yards, and all 10 QBs are averaging 24 yards per game. It’s also important to note that quarterbacks are averaging 3.4 rushing attempts against the Bills this season, and Mills is averaging 2.5 rushing attempts in his two starts this season.

This is the one - we’re focusing on Allen’s longest rush, as it jumps off the page. Allen is averaging a longest rush of 18.1 yards per game this season, going over this number in 60% of his games and in 75% of his road games, averaging a longest rush of 21.0 yards.

And his data on primetime is also outstanding, with a 75% hit rate and an average longest rush of 17.8. In his only road, primetime game this season, his longest rush was 24 yards.

And then of course there’s the matchup - three straight quarterbacks have gone over this number against the Texans, with Cam Ward, Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix averaging a longest rush of 22 yards. Even the week before, Mac Jones just missed at 13 yards.

The season started wth Baker going over this number, and the next two QBs still managing rushes over 10, even though they narrowly missed the over, too.

As with any digital ad campaign, the important thing is to reach streaming audiences who will convert. To that end, Roku’s self-service Ads Manager stands ready with powerful segmentation and targeting options. After all, you know your customers, and we know our streaming audience.

Worried it’s too late to spin up new Black Friday creative? With Roku Ads Manager, you can easily import and augment existing creative assets from your social channels. We also have AI-assisted upscaling, so every ad is primed for CTV.

Once you’ve done this, then you can easily set up A/B tests to flight different creative variants and Black Friday offers. If you’re a Shopify brand, you can even run shoppable ads directly on-screen so viewers can purchase with just a click of their Roku remote.

Bonus: we’re gifting you $5K in ad credits when you spend your first $5K on Roku Ads Manager. Just sign up and use code GET5K. Terms apply.

Use code GET5K now

Only one team has worse longest rush data than the Bills. Marks’ longest rush line is 13.5 yards, and of the 15 running backs to face the Bills this season who are clear-cut starters or part of a dedicated committee, 9 of them have had a longest rush of at least 14 yards, including three running backs in a row over the last 2 games.

Although Marks’ data isn’t overly strong - he’s averaging a longest rush of 12 yards, with just a 30% hit rate, his data at home is much better.

He’s averaging a longest rush of 15.2 at home, clearing this line in 3 of 5 home games.

Every day, dozens of our partners tag us in well-researched trends on X and Instagram. Check out some of them below:

ChatGPT is revolutionizing how we work, but most people barely scratch the surface. Subscribe to Mindstream for free and unlock 5 essential resources including templates, workflows, and expert strategies for 2025. Whether you're writing emails, analyzing data, or streamlining tasks, this bundle shows you exactly how to save hours every week.

Subscribe for Your Free Bundle

Our partner @WallaBets on X posts a day hit rate heroes sheet, and a shots on goal sheet for the NHL. Check them out below!