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Week 8 In The NFL & National Tight End Day

Somehow, we’re at week 8. We're almost at the halfway mark, and the Chiefs are on the outside of the playoff picture. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is giving new life to Cincinnati, while the Bears & Panthers are only one game out of the playoff picture. The story of last season, Washington, has not won back-to-back games. Oh, and Drake Maye is the 4th highest favourite to win MVP. Just as everyone expected, right?

Today is National Tight End Day in the NFL — and last season, they went off, combining for 17 touchdowns across Sunday and Monday. Wild, right? But what about the previous 6 National Tight End Days? Well…

• 2024: 17 touchdowns

• 2023: 7 touchdowns

• 2022: 12 touchdowns

• 2021: 9 touchdowns

• 2020: 12 touchdowns

• 2019: 11 touchdowns

• 2018: 17 touchdowns

Now, let’s get into it.

BUF @ CAR: Chuba Hubbard, TD

Here’s a list of all the teams that have not had a running back score a touchdown against the Bills this season:

• New York Jets

The Jets are the only team to face the Bills (in week 2) and not have a running back find the end zone.

Hubbard had 14 carries in his return from injury last week, and although he didn’t find the end zone, he faced a Jets defense that has held running backs out of their end zone in three straight weeks. In his last 10 games with at least 14 carries, he has had a touchdown 7 times with 9 touchdowns total.

If he gets the carries, the data suggests that he could find the end zone.

NYJ @ CIN: Ja’Marr Chase, Partner Play on X

Check out this play from ProphetProps on X:

SF @ HOU: Christian McCaffrey, TD

The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills have something in common; neither can stop running backs from scoring touchdowns. The Bills rank 30th in that category this season, and the Texans rank 29th. In their last 4 games, it’s particularly bad. They’ve given up 5 touchdowns in that stretch, with 3 of the 4 teams finding the end zone.

McCaffrey has also found a second gear, scoring three touchdowns in his last 2 games. Brock Purdy remains out, so Mac Jones will continue to put his trust in his all-pro running back.

NYG @ PHI: Cam Skattebo, TD

The Bills rank 30th vs running back touchdowns, the Texans rank 29th, and you guessed it, the Eagles rank 28th. Yes, this means that three of the first four trends we’ve written about have been running back touchdowns, but the matchups are too good on paper for us not to point out.

In their last 5 games, the Eagles have allowed an opposing running back to score each time, with running back touchdowns totalling 7 in that span. And Skattebo had three of those seven touchdowns on October 9th.

Although the return of Tyrone Tracy last week left Skattebo’s role uncertain amongst fans, it was uncertain in the eyes of the Giants. He ran the ball 16 times against Denver, 7 more than Tracy’s 9 attempts, and either way, both of them found the end zone in week 7. Let’s hope for more of the same today 🤞

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CLE @ NE: David Njoku, 27.5 Receiving Yards

Considering Njoku’s body of work this season, this number feels low. He’s averaging 37.2 yards per game, he has 28 or more in 83% of his games, and in the two games since Dillon Gabriel took over (Njoku missed week 7) at QB, Njoku has 28 & 67 yards.

The only game he went under, he was only targeted 3 times, and is averaging 6 targets per game this season. Let’s hope he gets at least 4 targets, because when he does, he has a 90% hit rate in his last 10 games while averaging 46.2 yards.

CHI @ BAL: Tyler Huntley, 0.5 Interceptions

Huntley is once again starting in place of the injured Lamar Jackson and the struggling Cooper Rush. He didn’t throw a pick in his 15 pass attempts last week, but this Bears defense is on fire in the interceptions department.

They’ve racked up 7 interceptions in their last 3 games, 10 interceptions this season, and at least one interception in every game but week two. A matchup like this, against a backup quarterback, is worth noting.

MIA @ ATL: Bijan Robinson, Partner Play from X

Check out this play from NextLevelBets on X:

TB @ NO: Baker Mayfield, 1.5 Passing TD’s

MVP-caliber Baker Mayfield, even if he doesn’t have Mike Evans, in this matchup, is too good to pass up.

Not only is he averaging 1.9 passing touchdowns per game with a 71% hit rate, and averaging 2.0 on the road with a 75% hit rate, he also matches up with a Saints defense that’s allowed two or more passing touchdowns in every game this season but one.

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DAL @ DEN: Dak Prescott, Partner Play on X

Check out this play from LockSmiths Picks on X:

TEN @ IND: Jonathan Taylor, 19.5 Longest Rush

When they played in week 3, Taylor absolutely destroyed this line, putting together a 46-yard run, finishing with 102 yards and 3 touchdowns.

77% of running backs in the last 10 games have gone over their longest rush line against the Titans, and they rank dead last in the NFL in this prop category this season.

GB @ PIT: Aaron Rodgers, 1.5 Passing TDs

Aaron Rodgers against his former team with their current data? Not bad.

Only Joe Flacco on Cleveland and Jared Goff in week one didn’t have at least 2 passing touchdowns against this Packers defense, and that includes another Joe Flacco on Cleveland and Jacoby Brissett in Arizona.

Rodgers has decent data against the prop, too: 2 or more passing touchdowns in 67% of his games, averaging 2.3 this season.

WAS @ KC: Instagram

We’ll post this researched trend on our IG Monday Night!

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See you Tuesday!