NBA Trends Powered By Edge
There are seven games in the association tonight, and we’ve filtered the Props.Cash app to show us only points, rebounds, assists, 3PTM, points + assists, points + rebounds, points + rebounds + assists, and rebounds + assists. Among those 8 props, we took the top Edge trend for each game and pulled it into today’s newsletter.
NHL fans - check out the bottom of the newsletter for our daily NHL cheat sheets.
Now, let’s get into it.
POR @ WAS: Caleb Love, 13.5 Points + Assists
EDGE: 18.1
Love is averaging 13.9 points and assists per game this season, with a 54% hit rate. But Love’s season is a tale of two completely different stories:
In his first 21 games, he’s averaged 17 minutes per game, 7.5 points, and 2.1 assists.
In his last 18 games, he’s averaged 28.9 minutes per game, 15.7 points, and 3.3 assists.
Love’s season has completely shifted at the 22nd game mark
Here are some quick hit facts that will shed further light on Love’s season, and his matchup tonight:
In his L5, he’s averaging 18 points and assists with an 80% hit rate.
In his L10, he’s averaging 18.8 points and assists with a 90% hit rate.
In back-to-backs this season, he’s averaging 16 points and assists with a 75% hit rate.
The Wizards rank 26th in Spot Up play type defense, where Love scores 33.6% of his points.
Against bottom 5 spot-up defensive teams, when playing 20 or more minutes, Love averaged 14.4 points and assists, with a 60% hit rate
This season on the road, when playing 19 or more minutes, he’s averaging 16.8 points and assists with a 67% hit rate.
SAC @ NYK: Miles McBride, 15.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
Edge: 20.5 PRA
McBride went under this line last game, finishing with only 12 PRA. Here’s the wild twist: he hasn’t gone under this line in back-to-back games since mid-November.
McBride’s PRA data this season
Here are some quick hit facts that will shed further light on McBride’s season, and his matchup tonight:
Over in 3 of his last 5, averaging 22 PRA.
Over in 7 of his last 10, averaging 20.6 PRA.
On two days' rest, he’s averaging 21 PRA with a 67% hit rate in three games.
At home, he’s averaging 17.4 PRA, with a 60% hit rate.
The Kings rank 24th in PRA defense against opposing point guards, with 69% of opposing point guards clearing their PRA line against Sacramento in their last 10 games.
Earlier this season against the Kings, McBride had 22 PRA.
NOP @ OKC: Saddiq Bey, 17 Points + Assists
Edge: 20.5
The thing to note with Bey: he’s averaging 31.6 minutes over his last 5 games. Remember that, it’ll be a key piece of data in this explanation.
He gets a tough matchup against OKC, who rank 2nd in points & assists defense against opposing small forwards. But even in tough matchups, there’s been light at the end of the tunnel for Bey. When he plays the top 5 defensive teams, he’s only averaging 15.3 points and assists, with a 33% hit rate.
Bey’s points and assists data against top 5 defensive teams, with his minutes outlined
But the light at the end of the tunnel is that when he plays 30 or more minutes against those top 5 defensive teams, his average is 23.7 points and assists with a 100% hit rate.
Bey’s points and assists data against top 5 defensive teams when playing 30 or more minutes
Here are some quick hit facts that will shed further light on Bey’s season:
In his last 5, he’s averaging 24.8 points and assists with an 80% hit rate.
In his last 10, he’s averaging 22.6 points and assists with an 80% hit rate.
He’s averaging 31.6 minutes in his last 10. In games this season playing 29 or more, he’s averaging 21.7 points and assists with an 81% hit rate.
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MIL @ PHI: AJ Green, 15.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
Edge: 18.1 PRA
Can we trust the last 2 games? Green has played 41 & 31 minutes in his last 2. Considering he’s averaged 29.5 minutes this season, playing 29 or fewer minutes in 20 of his 40 games, averaging 11.7 PRA with a 20% hit rate.
When he plays 30 or more minutes, he averages 18.5 PRA with a 59% hit rate. I repeat - can we trust the last two games?
Green when playing 30 or more minutes this season
Here are some quick hit facts that will shed further light on Green’s season:
Without Giannis and Porter Jr, he’s averaging 30.8 minutes. They’re both out tonight. In those games, he’s only averaging 14.5 PRA. The results haven’t been there, but the necessary minutes have.
The 76ers rank 27th in PRA defense against opposing shooting guards. When Green plays bottom 5 defensive teams, he’s averaging 14 PRA with a 29% hit rate.
DET @ DEN: Zeke Nnaji, 9.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
Edge: 15.0 PRA
Nnaji has taken advantage of the Jokic injury, showcasing his value to the Nuggets without their starting center in the lineup. With Jokic, he’s averaging 3.7 PRA with a 5% hit rate. Without Jokic, he’s averaging 14.8 PRA with a 69% hit rate.
Nnaji without Jokic this season
He’s facing the #1 PRA defense against opposing centers, but in the two games without Jokic versus top 5 defensive teams, he’s averaging 20.3 PRA with a 67% hit rate.
BKN @ PHX: Oso Ighodaro, 11.5 Points + Rebounds
Edge: 13.6 Points + Rebounds
Can Ighodaro keep it up? In his last 3 games, he has racked up games of 17 points & rebounds, 15 points and rebounds, and 13 P&R.
What’s been the big change? His field goal attempts. He’s averaging 4.0 this season, with 4 or fewer in 29 of his 46 games. In his last three, he has 5 or more attempts each time. When he has an above-average field goal attempt game this season, meaning 5 or more attempts, he’s averaging 14 points and rebounds per game with a 71% hit rate. Keep shooting, Oso.
LAC @ UTA: Lauri Markkanen, 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Edge: 39.0
Markannen hasn’t played since January 12th. He’ll probably play fewer minutes tonight, so that’s the concern. But against this line, he’s crushing - 70% hit rate this season, 90% hit rate in his last 10, 80% hit rate in his last 5.
But again, the limited minutes can’t be ignored. He’s averaging 36 minutes per game this season, and when he plays 35 or fewer this season, he’s averaging 32 PRA.
Markannen’s when playing 35 or fewer minutes
He has a tough matchup, but there is some good news: the Clippers rank 4th in PRA defense against opposing power forwards, but 59% of opposing small forwards have cleared their line against the Clippers in their last 10 games.
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