5 Games, 5 Thoughts for the NBA Cup Tonight

There is another slate of NBA Cup games tonight, and Competitive Edge is here to help you with your betting research. We dug into Props.Cash this morning and are here to share one data-driven thought about each game tonight. Before we go into detail, here’s a preview of what you’ll read below:

• Bulls at Wizards, 7 PM: The Washington Wizards can’t defend, especially shooting guards. Hello, Jordan Poole.

• Bucks at Heat, 7:30 PM: Jimmy Butler will make his NBA Cup debut tonight after missing the Heats’ first two games. He’s been dealing with an ankle injury that forced him to miss 4 games, but he’s returned with some outstanding playing in the Heats’ last two games.

• Rockets at Timberwolves, 8:00 PM: Rudy Gobert against the Houston Rockets.

• Spurs at Jazz, 9:00 PM: Chris Paul can still sling it, and the Utah Jazz are a solid matchup for the veteran.

• Lakers at Suns, 10:00 PM: Looking at their first two games, one player stands out.

Bulls at Wizards: Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole is averaging 3.4 threes a game this season, on 7.6 attempts. His three-point line tonight is 2.5, a line he’s eclipsed in 64% of his games this season (9/14) and 71% of his games at home this season (5/7). He’s shooting the ball exceptionally well, and the Bulls are a bottom-ten team in almost every defensive metric, including 3 points shooting metrics.

Can Poole stay consistent in a good matchup?

Bucks at Heat: Jimmy Butler

Welcome back, Jimmy Butler!

Butler missed 4 games with an ankle injury, and in his return, he racked up back-to-back 30-point games. Consider that and his recent history against the Bucks:

Butler averages 26.3 points in his last 12 regular season games against Milwaukee, and 28 points per game in his last 5 home games against Milwaukee. His points line tonight is 20.5 or 21.5, depending on where you look. Can Butler continue his strong play against a team he’s played well against in the past?

Rockets at Timberwolves: Rudy Gobert

Rudy isn’t the same player he once was when some of these historical games happened, but his history against the Rockets is worth noting nonetheless. In his last 9 games against Houston, albeit dating back to 2021, Gobert has averaged 29.8 points and rebounds per game.

It’s also important to note more recent data, so Gobert has averaged 28.2 points per game in his last 5 meetings against Houston.

In his last 5 overall, Gobert has averaged 23.8 points per game, and the Rockets have averaged 22.2 points to centers this season, and 15.8 rebounds to centers. Here are some center comps for Gobert against Houston this season:

Spurs at Jazz: Chris Paul

Chris Paul is averaging 8.5 assists this season, 1.7 assists per game more than he was last year. And minutes aren’t playing that big of a role, he’s only playing 2.2 more minutes per game compared to a season ago. His assists line is 9.5 tonight, which he’s hit in 47% of his games this season, but in his last 5, that hit rate has clipped to 60%.

His matchup today, combined with his hot play, makes this worthy of watching tonight. The Utah Jazz allow 10.76 assists per game to point guards, 2nd worst in the NBA.

Lakers at Suns: Anthony Davis

This is the third matchup between the Lakers and Suns this season, and in the first two, it was the Anthony Davis show.

Davis racked up 43 points and rebounds in the first game, and 44 points and rebounds in the second game. It’s no surprise, he’s averaged 41.3 this season, and the Suns are a bottom-ten team in both points and rebounds allowed against centers this season.

Here are some comps for other centers in this matchup.

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See you Thursday!