Beginning of the End

The NBA Finals are here. Bittersweet. We’re set up for a great series, but then we’ll have to wait roughly 125 days until a new NBA season kicks off. On Tuesday, we highlighted 4 trends for game one. You can find the detailed breakdown by clicking here, but this is what they were:

1. Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points

2. Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points + Assists

3. P.J. Washington Over 1.5 3PTM

4. Al Horford Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

And we have more trends for game one, plus the MLB, WNBA, and Stanley Cup Finals below. But first…

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NBA Finals Trends

We’ve already highlighted four trends in Tuesday’s newsletter, but here are two more to consider for game one tonight:

Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points

Jayson Tatum has been over this line in 5 of his last 6 games against the Mavericks.

And that includes both games against them this season. First game of the NBA Finals, can Boston's best player show up?

Luka Doncic Over 3.5 Three Points Made

This is Luka Doncic’s first taste of NBA Finals action, and coming into this game he’s been lacing it from three.

He’s been over this line in 6 of his last 7 games, let’s hope he makes it 7 of his previous 8 games.

Stanley Cup Finals Trends

Until we have a sense of how this series will play out, the head-to-head goal data is a solid starting point.

Carter Verhaeghe Over 0.5 Goals

Verhaeghe has 4 goals in his last 10 games, not bad. But his data against Edmonton is much more encouraging. In the two games the Panthers played against Edmonton this year, Verhaeghe racked up three goals.

Connor McDavid Over 0.5 Goals

McDavid’s first Stanley Cup Finals. Here, we, go. Can he come through in game one?

It’s narrative-driven, but also data-driven; McDavid had a two-goal game against Florida earlier this year.

MLB Trends

Strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts…

Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Gray has racked up 33 strikeouts over his last 4 starts, an average of 8.25 strikeouts per game. Over those 5 starts, he’s gone over this line in three of them, and in the two he missed he was under by just one.

He also has a juicy matchup against a Colorado Rockies team that strikes out the 5th most in baseball to right-handed pitchers.

Javier Assad Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Assad has been over this line in back-to-back starts and 3 of his last 5 starts. Just like Gray, the two starts he went under this line he missed by just one strikeout.

And just like Gray, Assad has a great matchup versus the Red who strikeout the second most to right-handed pitchers this season.

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Tuesday Recap

3/5 on Tuesday, with the NBA trends still needing to play out. Since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th, our suggested trends are 72/129 (56%). See the full breakdown below.

MLB

Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 K’s ✅ Glasnow finished with 9 K’s, easy green check mark.

Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 K’s ❌ Swing and a close miss, Imanaga finished with 6 K’s.

George Kirby Over 5.5 K’s ✅ Kirby had himself a night! He dealt against the Athletics, finishing with 9 K’s.

NBA

Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points❓We’ll see tonight.

Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points + Assists❓We’ll see tonight.

P.J. Washington Over 1.5 3PTM ❓We’ll see tonight.

Al Horford Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists❓We’ll see tonight.

WNBA

Elizabeth Willimas Over 13.5 Points+Rebounds ✅ Williams breezed past this line with 10 points and 8 boards

Julie Vanloo Over 8.5 Points ❌ Vanloo shot 2 for 6 from the floor and 1 for 5 from three, brutal night.