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NBA Finals Draw Near
MLB and WNBA Take Center Stage
One more sleep until the NBA Finals and four more sleeps until the Stanley Cup Finals. But there are zero sleeps for today’s MLB and WNBA trends, so let’s get into those. But first…
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MLB Strikeout Trends
NBA trends are below, but we’ll start on the diamond. In our research for this week’s newsletter, we came across three strikeout props we had to highlight for the community. Here they are:
Tyler Gasnow Over 3.5 Strikeouts
It’s as simple as this: the Pirates strikeout a ton versus right-handed pitchers, the 5th most in baseball.
And Tyler Glasnow is an elite strike thrower, this is a juicy matchup for him. He’s gone over this line in 4 of his last 5 games.
Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Can Shota bounce back?
Imanaga had his first bad start his last time out, and today will be a test to see if he can put it out of his mind and rebound for the Cubs. He’s been over this line in his last 5 starts before his outing on May 29th against Milwaukee. And Imanaga gets a matchup against the worst team in baseball.
George Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts
George Kirby isn’t a strikeout king, but the matchup is too good. Five straight righties have gone over this line against the Athletics (Morton has a red X because his line was 6.5, but if it were at Kirby’s 5.5 he would’ve gone over, too.)
Below you’ll see just how bad the Athletics are regarding strikeouts against righties. Kirby should be able to jump on this matchup.
NBA Finals Game 1 Trends
Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are a championship-or-bust squad, having made it to the Eastern Conference Finals 5 previous times in the Tatum era, the NBA Finals once, and are still looking for their first ring. The Dallas Mavericks have the best-scoring backcourt in the league, and Luka can cement himself in Mavericks history with his first championship.
Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points
We’re highlighting this trend for two reasons: Doncic went over this line in 4 of the last 5 games in the Minnesota series, so the recent data is encouraging.
And for the narrative; Luka’s first NBA Finals game? Sign us up.
Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points+Assists
Holiday was key in the sweep of the Indiana Pacers, going over this line in 3 of the 4 games.
And his history against the Dallas Mavericks is solid. Holiday has hit the over in 6 straight matchups against them.
PJ Washington Over 1.5 3PTM
We’ve consistently highlighted this trend in the playoffs because PJ Washington has been consistent. He’s been over this line in 9 of his last 10 playoff games.
And in 9 straight games against the Boston Celtics.
Al Horford Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
Kristaps Porzingis is back, but that doesn’t scare us away from this trend. With Porzingis in the lineup, Horford has gone over this line in 70% of his last 30 games.
And he’s been over this line in 7 of his last 10 games these playoffs.
WNBA Trends
New York Liberty vs Chicago Sky
Elizabeth Williams Over 13.5 Points+Rebounds
Williams has been over this line in 6 of the 7 games the Chicago Sky have played so far this season, missing only in her last game after getting into some early foul trouble and playing just 21 minutes.
Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Suns
Julie Vanloo Over 8.5 Points
Vanloo has been a road warrior.
She’s gone over this line in 4 of her 5 road games this season, including a 12-point showing against the Suns on May 17th.
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Tuesday Recap
5/10 on Thursday. Since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th, our suggested trends are 69/124 (55%). See the full breakdown below.
NBA Recap
Derrick Jones Over 13.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds ❌ Jones never got going, and finished with a 5/2/2 line for the miss
Josh Green Over 0.5 3PTM ❌ Josh Green looked like he cashed this, but it was changed to a long two. Tough.
Jaden McDaniels Over 0.5 Steals ❌ McDaniels had 5 fouls, the lowlight of a terrible game. He didn’t come through.
Mike Conley Over 20.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists ❌ Conley only played 21 minutes in the blowout, this was a bad read. We should’ve avoided this with his injury designation.
NHL Recap
Igor Shesterkin Over 28.5 Saves ✅ Three games in a row Shesterkin has hit this number
Gustav Forsling Over 1.5 Shots on Goal ✅ He scored and registered two shots. Let’s go.
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots on Goal ✅ Zach Hyman is a shooting machine. 5 shots on goal to give us the green check mark.
Joe Pavelski Over 1.5 Shots on Goal ✅ Easy over for Pavelski, too.
WNBA Recap
Breanna Stewart Over 9.5 Rebounds ✅ This line was always too low, Stewart crushed it with 15 boards.
MLB Recap
Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Strikeouts ❌ Gallen threw 6 pitches, faced one batter, and left the game injured. Brutal luck. Some books voided this, but most didn’t.