
Wemby Didn't Convert. OG is Unstoppable on the Road. Brunson Got Unlucky.
Game two of the NBA Finals is a few hours away. Game one was everything you could ask for.
Now the question is simple: does Brunson keep doing Brunson things and put the Knicks up 2-0, or does Wemby bounce back and avoid getting swept at home before the series shifts to New York?
Using data from game one, here are three story lines to watch in game two.
WAIT - before we do. Check out our latest tutorial, researching three props in Major League Baseball on the tool:
Now, let’s get into it.
Learning From Game One
Victor Wembanyama, 11.5 Rebounds
Wemby had 22 rebound chances in game one, more than he saw in either regular season game against the Knicks (17 & 18). But he only converted 12 of them into actual rebounds, his second-lowest total in these playoffs in a game with 20 or more chances.

The chances were there. He just didn't convert at the rate we’re used to seeing, even though he went over this line.
Worth keeping in mind for game two: in his 12 playoff games with 19 or fewer rebound chances, he's averaging 8.5 rebounds with a 33% hit rate.

The volume of chances matters a lot for Wemby, and even when he gets them, there's no guarantee he converts.
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OG Anunoby, 14.5 Points
Nobody, including us, knows why OG has been at his best on the road this postseason, but the numbers don't lie. In 7 home games, he's averaging 16.9 points with a 57% hit rate. In 6 road games? 22.5 points per game and a perfect 6 for 6.

But more importantly is his volume on the road. OG is averaging 13.5 field goal attempts per game, with 12 or more attempts in 5 of his 6 road games. At MSG, that number drops to 9.7 attempts, with 9 or fewer in 6 of 7 home games.
Even if we see a small correction, in all games this season with 10 to 16 field goal attempts (his playoff high), he’s averaging 19.0 points with a 77% hit rate. And on the road, he’s averaging 19.0 points with a 78% hit rate.

Can OG stay hot on the road?
Jalen Brunson, 2.5 3PTM
Brunson had 9 3-point attempts in game one. Nine! But he only hit two threes, so we thought it would be interesting to look at his splits and diagnose what we may see in game two.
If you took Brunson’s over in game one, be prepared, this one hurts.
Game one was the 22nd game this season with 9 or more 3-point attempts, and it was only the second game this season that Brunson had 9 or more attempts and went under the 2.5 made threes line.

It’s kind of hard to believe that Brunson had 20 straight games this season with 9 or more attempts, went over every single time, and then went under in game one.

