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Full Slate Breakdown: NBA, NHL, & MLB

Here’s the situation in each of the three leagues listed above:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder won game four on Monday night, and a win on Wednesday would put them in the NBA Finals. The series shifts back to OKC. The New York Knicks can tie the series at 2 Tuesday night, or the Pacers can push them to the brink before the series shifts back to New York for game 5.

• In the NHL, Carolina stayed alive Monday and forced a game 5. It ended a 15-game losing streak in the Eastern Conference Finals for the franchise, dating back to 2009. In the west, the Oilers can take a stranglehold on the series with a win tonight, they’d be up 3-1 heading back to Dallas for game 5.

• There are 15 games in baseball on Tuesday, and we have our MLB head-to-head data sheet to highlight historical matchups in today’s slate.

We’re going to dive into data for both series in the NBA and NHL, and then we have our MLB head-to-head data sheet in the newsletter, too.

NBA

NYK/IND: Karl-Anthony Towns, 33.5 Points + Rebounds

So far in the series, KAT has gone over this number in 2 of three games, averaging 37.7 points and rebounds per game in the series.

Two pieces of underlying data are important for KAT here;

• The white numbers are how many minutes KAT has played in each game. As you can see, in the game where he went under, he played less than 30 minutes, and in the two games where he went over, he played more than 30 minutes.

• The second piece of data is the rebound chances, shown below. He had 19+ in the two days he went over.

This season, when he plays 30+ minutes and sees at least 19 rebound chances, he’s averaging 40 combined points and rebounds per game. That said, to keep things simple and more reliable, we removed the rebound chance filter in the chart below.

Just when he plays 30+ minutes, he’s averaged 37.9 points and rebounds. Let’s hope for 30+ minutes tonight, and 19+ rebound chances.

OKC/MIN: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, 9.5 Points

NAW’s points line still coming in under 10 is pretty surprising when you look at how this series has played out for him thus far.

He’s averaged 16 points per game in the series, going over this 9.5 line in 3 of 4 games, and he only missed the line by two points in game one. Two pieces of data make Alexander-Walker attractive again for game 5 on Wednesday:

• he’s averaging 25.2 minutes per game in the series, playing 25+ in three of four games.

• he’s attempted 8 or more shots in all four games of the series and is averaging nearly 11 field goal attempts per game.

This season, when he plays 25+ minutes and attempts 10+ shots, he destroys this 9.5-point line.

Alexander-Walker averages 16 points per game under those parameters, clearing this line 90% of the time. We think it’s important to highlight that under slightly different circumstances, the numbers don’t get that much worse.

• NAW with 21-26 minutes, 8-13 shots: 12.4 PPG, clearing this line 73% of the time

• NAW with 25+ minutes, no field goal attempt filter: 11.8 PPH, clearing this line 59% of the time.

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MLB

Head-to-Head Data Sheet for May 27th

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NHL

DAL/EDM: Jason Robertson, 1.5 Shots on Goal

Robertson battled his way back from an injury, and although he’s been a bit slow getting his engine going, he’s shown signs of real life in the last two games. He scored his first goal of the playoffs, and in the process racked up 7 shots on goal, going over this line in both games.

More importantly, he’s been more involved in the play, with the same amount of shot attempts in the last two games than in the previous 6 combined (16). In those two games, he had 5+ shot attempts in both, and this season when he has 5+ shot attempts, he’s cleared this 1.5 line 98% of the time, averaging 3.5 shots on goal.

Even with 3+ shot attempts this season, he’s still averaging 2.8 shots on goal, clearing this line 84% of the time.

CAR/FLA: Sebastian Aho, 2.5 Shots On Goal

Carolina’s best player came through Monday night, helping extend the Hurricanes season with a goal and 7 shots on goal. In the series, he’s gone over this number twice and averaged 2.7 shots on goal through the first four games.

In the playoffs thus far, he’s averaged 2.9 shots on goal at home, and 5.1 shot attempts at home. This season when he has 5 shot attempts or more per game, he’s averaged 3.6 shots on goal and cleared this line 73% of the time.

At home with 5+ shot attempts, the number are even better; he averaged 3.7 shots on goal and has cleared this line in 76% of his games.

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See you Thursday!