Knicks and Celtics + Timberwolves and Lakers

The Boston Celtics begin their title defense tonight against the title-hopeful New York Knicks and LeBron James starts season 22 against Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. We thought we’d take a look at how some of the stars, who start their season tonight, have started their last two campaigns to get a better grasp on what we can expect tonight.

Jayson Tatum Opening Night

Tatum has been a machine on opening nights the last two seasons.

• He had 34 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists in a 108-104 win over the Knicks in 2023.

• He had 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists in a 126-117 win over the 76ers in 2022.

Considering that, let’s look at is opening lines to start the 2024 campaign. Tatum opens this season with a points line of 25.5 at most sportsbooks, a rebounds line of 8.5, and an assist line of 5.5. This is how his season last year split against those lines:

• He went over his 25.5 points line in 54% of his games last season, but his home and away splits are drastically different. Check it out in the charts below:

• He only went over his 8.5 rebound line in 45% of his games last season and only 40% of the time at home.

• And Tatum was only able to rack up 6 assists 40% of the time last season and 32% of the time at home.

The matchup isn’t the easiest for Tatum either. The Knicks were 14th in defending small forwards last season, and they were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season, ranking top 10 in most defensive categories.

Jalen Brunson Opening Night

Unlike Tatum, Jalen Brunson has had slow opening nights in back-to-back seasons, displaying two not-so-impressive stat lines in 2023 and 2022.

• Brunson had 15 points, 2 rebounds, and 6 assists in a 108-104 loss to the Celtics to start the 2023 season.

• Brunson had 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists in a 115-112 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies to start the 2022 season.

With the 2024 season starting, sportsbooks have started Brunson’s points line at 28.5, his rebounds line at 3.5, and his assists line at 7.5. Here are the straight-up hit rates, with no filters enabled, for Brunson last season against those three lines:

As for his opening night matchup against Boston, this is how Brunson faired last season against those three lines head-to-head:

• He went over his points line in just 2 of 5 games against Boston last year.

• Brunson went under in all 5 games against the Celtics with a 3.5 rebound line

• He went under in 4 of 5 games on his assists line against Boston last season

And we cap Brunson’s section off by highlighting the Celtics defensive stats. They were a very good defensive team outside of opponent 3-point percentages.

Anthony Edwards Opening Night

The Timberwolves look very different this year with Karl Anthony Towns in the Big Apple and Julius Randle riding shotgun with Anthony Edwards. Ant has started his last two seasons with 26/14/1 and 11/8/7 lines, respectively.

How are sportsbooks pricing Edward’s points, rebounds, and assists lines in his first start out of the KAT era?

• His points line is at 26.5, a line he hit in 53% of his games last season and 2 of 4 against the Lakers, but both of those hits were at home. The Timberwolves are on the road.

• His rebounds line is 5.5, a line he hit just 43% of the time last season but he was marginally better on the road, hitting at a 51% clip.

• His assists line is 5.5, which he hit just 41% last year, but did hit in both road games against the Lakers.

The Lakers are not the defensive stars that the other three opening night teams are, ranking bottom 10 in most key defensive categories except rebounding, where they ranked bottom 11.

LeBron Opening Night

The Lakers have lost back-to-back season openers (119-107 last year to Denver, 123-109 in 2022 to Golden State) but LeBron has played well in both games. LeBron started his season with a 21/8/5 line last year and a 31/15/8 line the year before.

He opens his season with a 24.5-point line at most sportsbooks, 6.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists. Here are his hit lines for all of those last season:

• 24.5 Points: 60% overall, 62% at home, and 2/2 vs Minnesota

Here’s how the Timberwolves ranked in various defensive categories last season:

And now on the app, we have a defense vs position ranking filter on the main dashboard and each player page. So how did the Timberwolves rank defending LeBron’s position last year?

The Timberwolves were 6th in the NBA defending small forwards, but LeBron also plays almost every position outside of the 5 for this Lakers team. Hopefully, by mixing in all the data above, you’ll be able to hit the ground running for LeBron research tonight.

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