NBA Shot Chart Splits Are Here!

There won’t be a Sunday newsletter this week, with a week off in the NFL (except the Pro Bowl), ahead of the Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles. We’re using today’s newsletter to bring a new feature to your attention! You may notice a new button on the Props.Cash app if you’re on IOS (don’t worry Android users, it’s coming!). We’ve highlighted the new button in the image below.

When you click on that, your screen will look like the image below.

So, what are you looking at here?

• This Red area highlights that Charlotte doesn’t allow a lot of points from the three, 4th least in the NBA.

• The Grey areas indicate that Powell scores less than 20% of his total points from that area.

• The Green indicated a favorable matchup for Powell and the percentage (26%) indicates that he scored 26% of his total points from that area. The “19th” is Charlotte’s ranking by points allowed in that area.

Let’s show you another example where the shooter has a better matchup, so you can get a better sense of our latest feature.

Brook Lopez

We’re going to use Brook Lopez for the next example.

Lopez scored 75%(!) of his points from beyond the arc and under the basket, two places the Spurs are in the bottom half of the league defending against (20th, 16th). That’s why the area above the three-point line on Lopez’s shot chart splits is green, indicating a strong matchup for Lopez.

There are no red areas here because there is no place where Lopez scored over 20% of his points from that the Spurs defend well enough.

The grey areas don’t lean one way or another - Lopez scores less than 20% of his points from these spots on the court so it’s not a true indicator of either party having an advantage.

Let’s use the new charts, in combination with other data, to find a betting trend in tonight’s slate.

James Harden, Under 20.5 Points

Harden scored 53% of his points from beyond the arc, 20% of his points in the key, and another 16% from the low post/under the basket. Unfortunately for Harden, he doesn’t get a good matchup on the court tonight. Charlotte is a top 5 defense in two of Harden’s top three scoring areas.

Let’s break down why we think this chart leans Harden under:

• Harden scored 53% of his points from beyond the arc, but the Hornets allowed the 4th least points from that area of the court. Before we get into the shot chart, let’s look at Harden’s last 10 games.

• Harden scores 20% of his points from the key, but the Hornets allow the least amount of points in the league from that area of the court.

• The Hornets allow the 18th most points from the post/under the basket, but Harden scored just 16% of his points from there.

Now let’s take that data, and look at other Harden/Hornets data that can support our thinking.

Although Harden has been over his number in 3 straight games, it is worth noting he has not been over this number in 4 straight at any point this season.

And Harden, dating back to 2021, has only been over this line once in his last 6 games versus Charlotte.

And the Hornets this season allow the 2nd least amount of points per game to shooting guards. That average is close to 20 (19.97) but that average drops to 18.25 at home, also 2nd best in the league.

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

Hopefully, as you use this new feature more, you’ll get more accustomed to how it can be utilized to research the NBA night in and night out! See you Tuesday!