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6 Games in the NBA, 13 Games in the NHL

Of the six games in the NBA this afternoon and tonight, these three have the smallest spreads:

• Milwaukee (-1.5) at Indiana

• Memphis (+4.5) at Phoenix

• Cleveland (-4.5) at the LA Lakers

Those are the three games we researched for today’s newsletter. Because of the frequency of blowouts in the NBA, we wanted to use Props.Cash to find value in games that are likely to stay close.

With 13 games in the NHL, we found three pieces of data for the big New Years Eve slate.

Milwaukee at Indiana (3 PM): Khris Middleton

Today will be Khris Middleton’s 10th game back from injury, and in the last 5, he’s found his stride. Middleton is averaging 19-5-5 over his last 5 games, and it’s his points that we’re focusing on here.

His points line in 13.5 today, and Middleton is coming off three straight games with 21 points. His head-to-head data against Indiana, with this points line, is literally perfect.

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Memphis at Phoenix (9 PM): Centers vs Phoenix

Even with Jusuf Nurkic, the Phoenix Suns are not a great team in the paint, and are not a great team vs centers.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is the Grizzlies’ number-one center and has taken advantage of this matchup in his last two games vs the Suns.

Although he struggled against Phoenix from 2021 to early 2023, Jackson has games of 36 and 28 against the Suns in his last two matchups. The important distinction between those two games and the other 7? Ja Morant didn’t play in either of those games and played in just 1 of the 7.

With Ja still out, and the Suns’ lack of defense on centers, can Jackson take advantage tonight?

Cleveland at Los Angeles (9 PM): Jarrett Allen vs Anthony Davis

There are a couple of facts about this spicy piece of data:

• Jarrett Allen has great rebounding data vs Davis in their careers

• The Lakers give up a ton of rebounds to centers

In his last 5 games against Davis, Allen has averaged 13 rebounds, going over his 9.5 rebound line in all 5 games.

And the Lakers this season, against centers, don’t rebound well. Even with Davis patrolling the paint, they give up the most rebounds per game to centers.

NHL Quick Thoughts

With so many games in the NHL today, here are some quick hits for the 13-game slate.

• The Philadelphia Flyers are in San Jose, and Matvei Michkov is a road warrior. He’s averaging 1.7 shots on goal at home, and 2.4 shots on goal on the road. The Sharks allow 32.59 shots on goal per game, the most in the NHL.

• Sidney Crosby loves to play the Detroit Red Wings. In his last 11 games against Detroit, Crosby has 19 points and 6 goals. The Red Wings are also struggling defensively this season, bottom 8 in most defensive categories tracked on Props.Cash.

• Can Brock Boeser stay hot? Boeser has goals in three straight games and has 5 goals in that stretch. Boeser gets the Flames, who he had two goals against in the opening game of the season, but has just 1 goal in his last 11 games against them before that.

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See you Thursday!