NFL Divisional Weekend is Upon Us!

Author

Michael Mohorovich
January 18, 2024

One Prop for Each NFL Divisional Game

Two divisional games on Saturday, and two divisional games on Sunday. There are a few trends that pop out on the props.cash dashboard, let’s start with the first game on the schedule - Houston at Baltimore.

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Houston vs. Baltimore

The Texans’ rush defense is stout; 6th best in the league. But the Ravens should be able to expose the Texans pass defense, which ranked in the bottom third of the league this season.

And if they do expose it, Odell Beckham Jr. could benefit. He’ll get a good matchup with the Zay Flowers on the other side and his receiving yards line is 32.5, which he’s never failed to hit at home this season.

Green Bay vs San Francisco

Two things are true about the Green Bay Packers right now: they’re trying to become one of the best Cinderella stories in recent memory after their big upset last weekend and tight ends love playing against them.

6 straight tight ends have hit their receiving lines against the Pack, so this seems like a good spot for George Kittle to stretch that streak to seven. Kittle’s receiving line is 55.5, he’s hit that in 55% of games this season but his numbers at home are even better.

Tampa Bay vs Detroit

It’s pretty impressive that the Buccaneers have made it to the divisional round with a pass defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in most major categories.

Enter, Sam LaPorta. The Lions rookie tight end has built a great report with Jared Goff as both a deep threat and an underneath check-down safety blanket.

5 of the last 6 tight ends to play the Buccs would’ve gone over LaPorta’s line of 3.5, too.

Kansas City vs Buffalo

Let’s run it back! Kansas City and Buffalo v3 is the perfect way to end the divisional weekend. This time the Bills get home-field advantage with the opportunity to exercise the demons and if they do it, Josh Allen will have to show up and show up big.

Yes, the Chiefs defense is elite but Allen has hit this line in 67% of his games this season and 77% of his starts against AFC teams this year.

Using the “Defense vs Position” filter to find value in the NBA

Each NBA team has its strengths and weaknesses, and some teams defend better against some positions than they do against others.

On the main trends page, the “D v Pos” will filter all the players for that night against how their opponent defends their position. Once you’ve done that, you can look to the right and using hit-and-miss trends find value in Thursday’s NBA slate.

For example, the Utah Jazz don’t defend against shooting guards well at all. And it could be a spot for OKC guard Isaiah Joe on Thursday night.

You’ll also see that DeMar DeRozan has a good spot tonight. The Raptors don’t defend small forwards well at all, and DeMar has hit his line in 55% of games this season.

Walker Kessler Rebounds

Walker Kessler has cleared his rebound prop in 68% of his games this season, 7 of his last 10 games, and in all three games against Oklahoma City dating back to last season.

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija has at least one steal in 25 of 39 games this season and 13 of his last 14 games. In his last 6 games against the Knicks, Advija has 8 steals, only failing to get at least one in one of those starts.

Dylan Guenther Shots on Goal

Since being called up on January 7th, Dylan Guenther has found a way to get the puck on the net. He’s missed this line in just one of his five games, averaging 2.8 shots on goal per game.

Joe Pavelski Points

Joe Pavelski has points in four straight games and 30 of his 43 games this season. Going back to 2021, Pavelski has at least one point in 5 straight games against the Flyers, and his last three games have all been multi-point outings.