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Sizing Up The 1 PM Window In The NFL
Thanksgiving weekend! It’s one of the best weekends in sports, and especially in football. Four games from this week are already behind us, but we still have plenty of action on Sunday and Monday. Below you’ll find the top EDGE trend for each game from the 1 PM slate, with notes about why EDGE likes what it likes.
Let’s get into it.
JAX @ TEN: Cam Ward, 199.5 Passing Yards
Edge: 208.8 Yards
The top trend by Edge for this game is Cam Ward, passing yards. His line is 199.5 yards, but Edge likes him to finish just under 210.
Here are some notes about Ward and this trend:
He’s averaging 200.9 yards per game this season, clearing this line 55% of the time.
He’s averaging 207.3 at home, clearing this line in 3 of 6 home games.
He’s averaging 228 yards per game over his last 7, clearing this line in 5 of those 7 games.
The Jags rank 26th in passing yards allowed to opposing QBs.
3 of the last 4 QBs to face Jacksonville have cleared this line.
ATL @ NYJ: Kirk Cousins, 0.5 Rush Yards
Edge: 3.1 Yards
The top trend by Edge for this game is Kirk Cousins’ rushing yards line. His line is 0.5 yards, but Edge likes him to finish with 3.1 yards.
Here are some notes about Cousins and this trend:
In his two starts, he has 2 and 5 rushing yards.
He has 2 rushing attempts in both of his starts this season.
In his last 30 games overall, playing 80% of the snaps or more, he’s averaging 2.7 rush yards.
The Jets rank 26th in rush yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, with every QB except Aaron Rodgers registering at least 2 rush yards against them this season.
LA @ CAR: Rico Dowdle, 59.5 Rush Yards
Edge: 65.5 Yards
The top trend by Edge for this game is Rico Dowdle, rushing yards. His line is 59.5 yards, but Edge likes him to finish with just over 65.
Here are some notes about Dowdle and this trend:
He’s only cleared this line in 4 games this year, but he’s still averaging 72.6 yards per game this season.
He’s played 65 or more of the snaps in four straight games, and this season, with a snao share of 65 or more, he’s averaging 109.2 yards with a 50% hit rate.
This season at home, he’s averaging 105.2 yards. This is obviously inflated because he had 180+ yards in 2 of the 5 games, and less than 55 in the other three games. In his 5 home games, he’s cleared in 2 of 5. But in 2 of the other three, he had 54 & 53 yards.
The Rams rank 8th in rushing yards allowed to opposing backs, with 53% of opposing backs clearing their line versus the Rams in their last 10 games.
NO @ MIA: Foster Moreau, 1.5 Receiving Yards
Edge: 7.6 Yards
The top trend by Edge for this game is Foster Moreau, receiving yards. His line is 1.5 receiving yards, but Edge likes him to finish with over 7 yards.
Here are some notes about Moreau and this trend:
He hasn’t had a reception in 5 of 7 games this season, but in the two he did, he had 9 & 16 yards.
He may be getting more involved in the offence - he has 4 targets and 2 receptions in his last 2 games.
The Dolphins rank 28th in receiving yards allowed to opposing tight ends.
In their last 5 games, 7 of the 8 tight ends they’ve faced, which include backups, have cleared this line. All 7 had 30 or more yards.
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ARI @ TB: Bucky Irving, 40.5 Rush Yards
Edge: 54.0 Yards
The top trend by Edge for this game is Bucky Irving’s rushing yards line. His line is 40.5 yards, but Edge likes him to finish with 54.0 yards.
Here are some notes about Irving and this trend:
He’s only played four games this season because of injury, but in those 5, he averaged 59.3 yards. He’s cleared this line in 3 of the 4 games.
He’s over in both home games, averaging 64.5 yards.
The Cardinals rank 19th in yards allowed to opposing running back.
Five straight starting running backs have cleared this line versus Arizona.
SF @ CLE: Shedeur Sanders, 31.5 Longest Pass
Edge: 41.8 Yards
The top trend by Edge for this game is Sanders’ longest pass line. His line is 31.5 yards, but Edge likes him to finish with 41.8 yards.
Here are some notes about Sanders and this trend:
In his two games this season, one of which he started and one he did not, he averaged 45.5 on his longest prop, with a 25-yard prop in his first game and an incredible 66-yard pass in his second game.
The 49ers rank 12th in the longest pass allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
6 of the last 8 QBs to face the 49ers have easily cleared this line.
HOU @ IND: Alex Pierce, 42.5 Receiving Yards
Edge: 52.4 Yards
The top trend by Edge for this game is Alec Pierce’s receiving yards line. His line is 42.5 yards, but Edge likes him to finish with 52.4 yards.
Here are some notes about Pierce and this trend:
He’s averaging 67.9 yards per game this season, clearing this line in 7 of 9 games.
He’s over in 4 straight home games, and 4 of 5 home games this season. He’s averaging 61.0 yards in his home games this season.
He gets a tough matchup - the Texans rank 7th in receiving yards allowed to opposing backs, and 3rd overall in receiving yards allowed.
Daniel Jones has a fractured fibula, which he’s going to try and play through (????). But it’s going to impede his performance to some degree, and that’s something to keep an eye on here.
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