The Sunday newsletter usually features one pick for each Sunday and Monday NFL game, but this week we’re switching things up. The final two weeks of the NFL season bring “incentive season,” when skill-position players can earn significant bonuses by hitting performance benchmarks written into their contracts. Instead of our usual format, we’re spotlighting three of those players and breaking down their matchups for this week using data from Props.Cash.

Before we dive in, we just released a new tutorial ahead of the holidays, which we’ve linked in the first break below. It’s a quick how-to guide for new users and a great starting point if you’re considering the app. If you do want to try it out, we’ve also created an exclusive 50% off first-month discount for newsletter readers through the end of the year. Head to the website to sign up by clicking this link and enter NEW50 at checkout.

Our source for all the incentive information is this Fantasy Life article. Now, let’s get into it.

Darnold’s betting line is 225.5 yards, a line that he has surpassed in three straight games and 5 of his last 6, averaging 232.4 yards per game over in his last 5. The Panthers rank 15th in passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, with 2 of the last 2 QBs to face them throwing for 240+ yards. They held the struggling Baker Mayfield to 145 yards last week, but rookie Tyler Shough racked up 272 against them just 2 weeks ago.

The most exciting data set for Darnold is how he’s looked on the road this season, averaging a whopping 276.3 yards away from Seattle this season, with a 100% hit rate. At home, his average drops to 221.1 yards, with a measly 38% hit rate. This game is in Carolina.

And his number one target is Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who has latched onto Darnold’s road success this season, averaging 119.6 yards away from Seattle. Why is that important? The Panthers’ defensive rank in terms of receiving yards allowed to opposing wideouts goes from 12th on the road to 17th at home.

Lastly, Darnold’s EDGE on the Props.Cash app is 241.4 yards.

Darnold needs four over his last 2 weeks to get the 500k bonus. He’s averaging 1.6 this season, and he has 2 or more in 3 of his last 5 games. We’ll look at the matchup in a minute, but first, his passing touchdown data on the road is outstanding.

He’s averaging 2 passing touchdowns on the road, with a 71% hit rate on his 1.5 passing touchdown prop. At home, that splits drops to 1.3/38%. Now, his matchup for this prop is tough. The Panthers rank 8th in passing touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks, with only 20% of opposing QBs managing 2 or more passing touchdowns against Carolina in their last 10 games.

Lastly, Darnold’s EDGE on the Props.Cash app is 1.6 passing touchdowns.

Remember that tutorial we talked about before? It’s next.

Check out our latest tutorial, a ‘where to start’ for new users of the app:

Dowdle has less than 55 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back weeks, seeing his rush attempts drop to 9 last week, but his receiving targets rise to 6. 70 yards is definitely within reach, depending on how big of an opportunity he gets in his last 2 weeks in the Panthers offense, with Chubba Hubbard also very much in the mix.

Over his last 5 games, he’s averaging 70 yards per game from scrimmage, 43.8 of those on the ground and 26.2 of those through the air. Although he gets more on the ground than he does through the air, his opportunities on paper may be better against Seattle. The Seahawks rank 4th in rushing yards allowed to opposing backs, but they rank a dreadful 28th in receiving yards allowed to opposing backs, with 53% clearing their receiving line against Seattle in their last 10 games.

Dowdle’s receiving + rushing yard line is 67.5, and his EDGE on the Props.Cash app is 66.9 yards.

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Henry isn’t getting to 60 or 65. 55 is even a long shot. But 4 receptions over his last 2 weeks? Definitely a possibility, even a high probability. This season, he’s averaging 3.5 receptions this season and 5.3 targets. On the road, he’s averaging 3.4 receptions and 5.1 targets. And his best two games this season have been the Pats’ last two road games, a good sign for his incentives as the Pats are on the road this week in New York.

His head-to-head this season against the Jets is the most exciting part: 4 receptions with 6 targets, not to mention 5 receptions on 6 targets last week. Not surprising, considering the Jets rank 17th in receptions allowed to opposing tight ends, and just gave up 8 to Saints tight end Juwan Johnson last week. Can Henry build on his season success from earlier this season against the Jets? His bank account, us, and his EDGE of 4.4 certainly hope so.