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NFL Betting Trends

7 games in the early window, 5 games in the late window, Sunday Night Football, and a double-header Monday night. Let’s go!

Caleb Williams Under 213.5 Passing Yards

Williams’ NFL career is off to a slow start. He’s completed just 56% of passing, averaged 4 yards per completion, has thrown zero touchdowns, two picks, and has a passer rating of 53. In week three, he faces a Colts defense that ranks 8th in passing defense so far this season. In week one, the Colts held C.J. Stroud to 234 yards and only gave up 122 to Malik Willis last week.

Deshaun Watson Over 21.5 Rushing Yards

Watson is 1 for 2 against this line this season, but just barely.

He’s also been over this line in 7 of his last 10 games overall, and his matchup on Sunday is juicy. The Giants have a bottom 5 rushing defense to start the year, and their opponents have taken advantage. Jayden Daniels rushed for 44 yards against them, and three of the four main running backs they’ve faced have gone over this line.

Josh Jacobs Over 18.5 Rush Attempts

If Jordan Love plays, this trend is much less appealing. But if it’s Malik Willis, then this line feels way too low.

With Willis under center last week, Jacobs rushed the ball 32 times. Even if we account for some regression, it still gives us a 13-rushing attempt cushion from this line to last week; that can’t be ignored.

Alvin Kamara Over 65.5 Rushing Yards

Look at how running backs have faired against Philadelphia this season:

Kamara should be able to find the same success. He’s off to a scorching start to 2024, with 83 and 115 yards in his two games, averaging 99 yards per game. This defense, plus Kamara’s hot start, is why we’re highlighting this trend for week 3.

Chris Boswell Over 1.5 Field Goals

Through two games, Boswell has 8 field goals compared to just 2 PATs. Moral of the story? The Steelers can get the ball downfield with Justin Fields, but they can’t find the endzone. I would expect that trend to continue against the LA Chargers, who rank 6th in both passing and rushing defense under Jim Harbaugh.

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Dalton Schultz Over 2.5 Receptions

Schultz is off to a slower start, grabbing 5 balls on 6 targets for 37 yards. But this could be a good bounce-back spot for Schultz because of the success tight ends have found against Minnesota dating back to last season

George Kittle is coming off a 7-catch performance against them last week, and two of the three tight ends to close out their season last year against Minnesota (Tanner Hudson, Sam LaPorta, and Tucker Kraft) all eclipsed this line.

Baker Mayfield Over 9.5 Rushing Yards

Mayfield has the NFL’s attention, leading the Buccaneers to a 2-0 start to the season, with a 129 passer rating and a completion percentage over 73%. But he’s also getting it done with his legs.

Mayfield has 55 rushing yards through two games, and the Broncos’ rush defense has not been good. Denver does have a top 5 pass defense through two games, so Baker may need to move the ball himself if he can’t find options downfield.

Gardner Minshew Under 32.5 Passing Attempts

Minshew has gone over this line in both games this season, but we think that could flip here, and this is why:

• The only good thing about Carolina is their pass defense. They rank 9th in passing yards and 2nd in pass attempts against.

• Their rush defense is awful; they rank 31st in rushing yards and attempts through the first two games, and that’s something the Raiders should try and take advantage of.

Both quarterbacks that have faced Carolina this year have gone under this number, too.

De’Vone Achane Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts

If Raheem Mosters was playing, we’d run in the opposite direction here. But he’s not:

With Tua out as well, the brunt of the offense will fall on Achane, who had 22 carries in week 2 without Mostert playing and Tua going down with his scary injury. Similar to Josh Jacobs in Green Bay with Malik Willis, Achane should get plenty of looks with Skylar Thompson under center.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD

After an abysmal week one for St. Brown, he bounced back in week two with 11 catches for 119 yards. The only thing missing? A touchdown.

The Cardinals gave up 2 passing touchdowns to wideouts in week one, and although they held Rams wide receivers off the score sheet in week two, we attribute that to the lack of talent on the field for LA. Pula Nacau was out pregame, Cooper Kupp was hurt during the game and that left Demarcus Robinson as the number one wideout. St. Brown is a top 5 receiver in the league, and the Cardinals have the 7th highest opposing completion percentage to start the season. St. Brown should get his chances in the red zone.

Matthew Stafford Over 32.5 Passing Attempts

The San Francisco 49ers are expected to beat this banged-up Rams team pretty handily, which could for the Rams to abandon the run pretty early, and leave Stafford to throw the ball.

He had 49 attempts in week one, and then only 27 in week two. Yes, he doesn’t have Nacau or Kupp, but we don’t need these wide receivers to make grabs, we just need Stafford to try them out. He’s also been over this line in 5 of his last 6 games against SF.

CeeDee Lamb Over 81.5 Receiving Yards

Lamb, at home, against the worst passing defense in the NFL? Okay!

Lamb has 90 or more yards in 7 of his last 10 home games, and the Ravens pass defense is so, so bad. Rashee Rice went for 103 yards against them in week one, Xavier Worthy had 47 in his first NFL game ever and DaVante Adams racked up 110 against them in week two. Lamb, at home, against the worst passing defense in the NFL? Again, okay!

Travis Kelce Over 4.5 Receptions

Kelce has had two uncharacteristically bad games to start his season, with just 4 catches on 7 targets for 39 yards and no touchdowns. Over his last 30 games, he’s never had 3 in a row with 4 receptions or less. This is strictly a “there’s no way he goes cold for three games in a row” trend, based on how he’s played over the last 30 games.

Keon Coleman Over 33.5 Receiving Yards

Coleman played more snaps in week two than he did in week one (91 to 73) but had fewer targets (1 to 5) and less everything, because of that. This is a potential bounce-back spot of sorts for the rookie, with the Jaguars being quite bad at defending the pass in the early going. They’ve allowed 4 receivers in two games to go over this line against them.

This isn’t the Gabe Davis revenge game, this is the “I replaced you” game 👀

Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

The Washington Commanders have faced Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield in the first two weeks of the season, and they’ve given up 6 passing touchdowns. Joe Burrow looked, well, bad in week one but bounced back in week two in a loss to Kansas City. If we get the Kansas City version of Joey B, we like the potential of this trend. On primetime at home, Burrow is over this line in 3 of his last 5 games.

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Thursday Recap

1-3, 181/347 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 52% hit rate..

NFL Recap

Breece Hall Over 31.5 Receiving Yards ❌ Hall had 25 yards.

Antonio Gibson Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts ❌ Gibson wasn’t featured until later in the game when it was too late. He finished with 5.

Garrett Wilson Over 22.5 Longest Reception ❌ Wilson’s longest reception was 9 yards, but he had a couple of drops that would’ve brought this home.

KJ Osborn Under 18.5 Receiving Yards ✅ Osborn had 0 yards.