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NFL Week 3 Games

Let’s get right to it — 15 NFL games, 15 trends. Each one zeroes in on a single angle: how teams have defended specific positions through the first two weeks. If a defense has locked a position down, we’re looking at the unders. If they’ve been bleeding yards, we’re looking at the overs.

1 PM Games

IND vs TEN, 1 PM: Alec Pierce, 15.5 Longest Reception

Now in his fourth season, in terms of yards per game, Pierce has never really been a big yardage receiver, averaging just 35.91 yards per game. But he is a big yardage receiver in terms of his longest reception, averaging 17.70 per reception in his career, and an average long reception of 30.8 over his last 10 games, going over this 15.5 longest reception in 8 of those 10.

The Titans have given up a longest reception of 16+ to four of the 7 wide receivers they’ve played this season, who have had a longest reception line at a sportsbook: Troy Franklin (18), Courtland Sutton (22), Puka Nacua (24), and Davante Adams (33). The three receivers that missed? Marvin Mims (7), Pat Bryant (0), and Tutu Atwell (0).

PIT vs NE, 1 PM: DK Metcalf, 4.5 Receptions

Number one receivers have shown up against the Patriots through two weeks, and although DK Metcalf has gone under this number in the first two weeks (4 receptions, 3 receptions), the wide receiver success versus the Patriots so far this season can’t be ignored.

Jakobi Meyers had 8, Tyreek Hill had 5, and Jaylen Waddle had 5. Plus, Metcalf has 7 & 6 targets through two weeks, so the opportunities have been there.

NYJ vs TB, 1 PM: Cade Otton, 3.5 Receptions

Yes, Otton has had a slow start. Cade has just 3 receptions on 7 targets, good for 25 yards and zero touchdowns. But similar to Metcalf above, we have to focus on how tight ends have performed against the Jets so far.

All four have gone over their reception line, and 2 of the four have gone over Otton’s line.

LV vs WAS, 1 PM: Geno Smith, 23.5 Pass Completions

The positional history and Geno’s first two weeks indicate an under for us here. Yes, Geno has gone over this number in back-to-back weeks, but he did it with only 24 completions in both weeks. Now he has to go up against a Commanders defense that held both QBs under their line in the first two weeks.

Not only did they both go under, but neither hit 20 completions.

LA vs PHI, 1 PM: Saquon Barkley, 89.5 Rush Yards

Barkley has gone under this number in both weeks to start the season, but he just narrowly missed in week two, finishing with 88 yards. The Rams’ defense gave up 92 yards to Tony Pollard and 60 yards to Nick Chubb in week one.

And for what it’s worth, Barkley had 205 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Rams last season. He also racked up 26 carries, more than his 18 & 22 carries in the first two weeks of this season.

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ATL vs CAR, 1 PM: Tyler Allgeier, Rushing Yards

For this play, check out our NFL Best Bets video on YouTube:

CIN vs MIN, 1 PM: Stay Away

Look, we promised 15 trends. I know. But the trend for this game is to stay away. There are no historical positional lines for either team that jump out; it’s two backup quarterbacks in Jake Browning and Carson Wentz, and there’s just no obvious trend to research. We looked, and we’re staying away.

HOU vs JAC, 1 PM: Trevor Lawrence, 0.5 Interceptions

Until T-Law proves otherwise, he just can’t take care of the ball. Through two games this season, he’s already thrown three picks; he’s thrown a pick in 8 of his last 10 games, with 10 picks total, and has thrown 20 interceptions in his last 20 games.

This season, Houston doesn’t have any interceptions, so we’re bending the rules a little bit for this one. But last year they had 19, second-best in the NFL.

GB vs CLE, 1 PM: David Njoku, 35.5 Receiving Yards

Our friends at Trinity Analytics bring you this one:

4 PM Games

DEN vs LAC, 4 PM: Bo Nix, 0.5 Interceptions

Nix has thrown 3 interceptions in the first two weeks of the season, and now he has to face an LA team that has all the momentum in the world. Last week, they picked off Geno Smith three times.

Nix has started his season with a bit of a sophomore slump, throwing less than 210 yards in both games, with those three interceptions.

NO vs SEA, 4 PM: Jaxson Smith-Njiba, 24.5 Longest Receptions

With DK and Lockett gone, JSN is the wide receiver one in Seattle, and wide receiver ones have been torching the Saints early in this season. Marvin Harrison Jr in week one, and Juan Jennings in week two, both cleared this number easily against this Saints squad.

JSN’s longest reception of 40 & 43 yards in the first two weeks of the season, too.

ARI vs SF, 4 PM: Kyler Murray, 33.5 Longest Pass

Murray has a longest pass of 45 and 31 yards in the first two weeks of the season, going over this number in week one and narrowly missing in week two. The 49ers have given up huge numbers in the longest pass category in the first two weeks of the season.

Spencer Rattler and Sam Darnold both throwing nearly 40-yard missiles is good news for Murray, who needs just 34.

DAL vs CHI, 4 PM: Jake Ferguson, 4.5 Receptions

Our friend Panda on X brings you this one:

Sunday Night Football

KC vs NYG, SNF: Patrick Mahomes, 28.5 Rush Yards

Unless we’re missing something, Mahomes’ rush yards at 28.5 are incredibly low considering his two-week output. He’s averaging 61.5 yards per game, has 57 or more in the first two weeks, and both quarterbacks that the Giants have faced have gone over their line

Prescott isn’t really a runner, and his line was just 4.5. He still managed over 15. Daniels is obviously a dual-threat quarterback, and he had nearly 70. Against this defense, Mahomes needs half of what he had in the first two weeks!

Monday Night Football

DET vs BAL, SNF: Check our Instagram!

For our researched Monday Night Football trend, check our Instagram here. We’ll be posting it on Monday!

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See you Tuesday!