NFL Week 3 Recap: Unders Are Still King

Plus MLB, WNBA Trends

Author

Michael Mohorovich
September 24, 2024

During the first two weeks, the story was largely about how the under was dominating across various player groups, with a slight shift towards the over in Week 2. How did player props play out in Week 3? Did we continue to see the trend shift, or did the under remain the prevailing outcome? Check it out below 👀⬇️

Note: The numbers are listed as such in each week's column (Players who qualified under that line parameter and overs-under).

Position and Line

Week One

Week Two

Week Three

What We Can Take Away

QB’s, 199.5 Passing Yards or Higher

29 (8-21)

72% went under in week one

23 (8-15)

65% went under in week two

18 (8-10)

55% went under in week three

Fewer QBs qualify each week, so not surprisingly, lines are moving higher as the season progresses. But the under continues to trump the over. We may need to adjust our qualifying line in the future.

RB’s, 39.5 Rushing Yards or Higher

31 (12-19)

63% went under in week one

29 (19-10)

34% went under in week two

29 (13-16)

55% went under in week three

Running backs were the only group to flip between weeks one and two, but we had a course correction in week three.

WR’s, 49.5 Receiving Yards or Higher

30 (9-21)

70% went under in week one

25 (12-13)

52% went under in week two

23 (11-12)

52% went under in week three

Fewer players have qualified each week, but the under stayed consistent from week 2 to 3. Still, a lot more overs compared to week one.

TE’s, 29.5 Receiving Yards or Higher

12 (2-10)

83% went under in week one

12 (6-6)

50% went under in week two

11 (3-8)

72% went under in week three

One less player qualified, but tight ends pulled back this week compared to a week ago.

Our overall thoughts: under, under, under! It’s still the dominating trend through the first three weeks of the season.

There are two MLB games tonight that are just too much fun: the Atlanta Braves are 2 games back of the New York Mets, and they’ll open a 3 game set that will likely decide who’s in the playoffs and who isn’t. And then the Dodgers and Padres end the night off, with Shohei on a 🐐 run and the Padres fighting for a chance at the NL West (they need to sweep the Dodgers to keep their hopes alive).

Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

The Braves need their best player to show up, and against the Mets he usually does. In his last 20 games against the Mets, he’s been over this line 16 times.

Ozuna loves playing the Mets

He's heating up at the perfect time, surpassing this line in 5 of his last 6 games. As a bonus, he faces Luis Severino, against whom he holds a .500 lifetime average, with a home run, 4 walks, and 3 RBIs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Tatis Jr. is on another level!

  • Hits in 11 straight games

  • 2 or more total bases in 10 of his last 11 games.

  • Against this HRR line, Tatis has gone over in 10 of his last 11 with 3 or more HRR in 8 of those games.

It’s a lot of numbers, but Tatis is on another level right now.

Tatis Jr. is living up to the franchise player moniker right now

Shohei Ohtani Jr. Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Everyone knows what Ohtani is doing right now, and his matchup tonight with Padres starter Michael King gives us hope he can continue his hot play.

Ohtani has dominated King at the plate

Ohtani has a single, a double, 3 home runs, and 4 RBIs versus King. And over his last 10 games, Ohtani has gone over this line 7 times with at least 3 HRR in all of those games.

Ohtani has 36 HRR over his last 4 games

Our WNBA trend of the night comes from one of our key capping partners, @MailManLocks.

Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 Rebounds

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Tuesday Recap

6-9 on Friday, 187/362 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 51% hit rate.

NFL Recap

Caleb Williams Under 213.5 Passing Yards ❌

Deshaun Watson Over 21.5 Rushing Yards ✅

Josh Jacobs Ocvr 18.5 Rushing Attempts ❌

Alvin Kamara Over 63.5 Rushing Yards ✅

Chirs Boswell Over 1.5 Field Goals ✅

Dalton Schultz Over 2.5 Receptions ❌

Baker Mayfield Over 9.5 Rushing Yards ❌

Gardener Minshew Under 32.5 Passing Attempts ✅

Devone Achane Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts ❌

Amon Ra St. Brown Anytime TD ✅

Matthew Stafford Over 34.5 Passing Attempts ❌

CeeDee Lamb Over 81.5 Receiving Yards ❌

Travis Kelce Over 4.5 Receptions ❌

Keon Coleman Over 22.5 Receiving Yards ❌

Jow Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns ✅