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NFL Week 3 Trends: Unders and Overs
Plus, DraftBoard and Birches Health
Michael Mohorovich
September 19, 2024
In partnership with
NFL Week 3: Jets and Patriots Start Us Off
As we highlighted on Tuesday, the under has been the play through the first two weeks of the NFL season:
Position and Line | # of Players Who Qualified | Over | Under | Change From Week One |
|---|---|---|---|---|
QB’s, 199.5 Passing Yards or Higher | 23 | 8 | 15 | 6 fewer qualified players, 72% went under in week one, 65% went under in week two |
RB’s, 39.5 Rushing Yards or Higher | 29 | 19 | 10 | 2 fewer players qualified, 52% went under in week 2 compared to 61% in week 1 |
WR’s, 49.5 Receiving Yards or Higher | 25 | 12 | 13 | 5 fewer players qualified, 52% went under in week 2 compared to 70% in week one |
TE’s, 29.5 Receiving Yards or Higher | 12 | 6 | 6 | The same number of qualified players, 83% went under in week one, and that dropped sharply to 50% in week two |
We’ll run this same report next Tuesday to see if this trend continues. Let’s get into some betting trends for week 3, starting with Thursday Night Football. We know the under have been hitting, but there are some overs in this game that we can’t ignore.
Thursday Night Football
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are 6-point favorites tonight. No team this season, who’s been favored by 6 or more, has covered the spread (there has been one push)—something to keep an eye on tonight.
Breece Hall Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
The offense has run through Hall through the first two weeks of the season, and all indications are that it should again tonight. Hall is 2 for 2 against this line this season, and he’s been over this line in 4 of his last 5 games dating back to last season.
Hall has 91 receiving yards this season
The highlight of the Patriots defense is their rush defense. Their passing defense has not been great over two games, and Hall should get his looks. He has 12 receptions over his first two games.
The Patriots pass defense ranks 27th this season
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Antonio Gibson Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts
The Patriots aren’t throwing the ball all that much. Jacoby Brissett has only attempted 51 passes through the first two weeks, and the Patriots’ two running backs, Rhomandre Stevenson & Antonio Gibson, have combined for 74 attempts so far this season. The bulk of those have been Stevenson (56) but Gibson has still gone over this line in both games.
Gibson has 18 carries through two games
And the Jets rushing D has been, well, bad through the first two weeks. They’ve given up 229 total yards to three running backs this season, and they’re averaging 155 rushing yards allowed per game in the early going.
The Jets are in the bottom 8 in both rushing yards and attempts against this season
The only scary scenario here is a blowout, but the Patriots D has been off to a good start, and we could see a lot of running in the first half.
Garrett Wilson Over 22.5 Longest Reception
The Patriots have given up a ton of medium and long passes through two weeks, and three receivers have managed to go over this number against them already this season.
Metcalf, Smith-Njiba, and Chase have all gone over this line
And look at the end of that list; Garrett Wilson had a 30-yard reception at the end of last season against the Patriots, and that wasn’t with Aaron Rodgers under center. Wilson has hit this line in one of two games this season, with a 26-yard reception in week 2.
KJ Osborn Under 18.5 Receiving Yards
KJ Osborn meets Sauce Gardner. Gardner is the best corner in the NFL, and Osborn will line up on the outside against him tonight. If you’re looking at a receiving for the Patriots, Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas should line up on the inside and avoid sauce, but Osborn won’t have that luxury. Not to mention Osborn has just 4 catches in 8 targets this season, racking up a meager 28 yards over two games.
Osborne is 50% on this line this season
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Tuesday Recap
1-3, 181/347 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 52% hit rate.
MLB Recap
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ 1 hit, just 3 walks.
Christian Walker Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Walker had 1 hit, 1 run, and 1 RBI.
Nick Pivetta Over 6.5 K’s ❌ Pivetta was pulled after 4.3 innings with 6 K’s.
WNBA Recap
Diana Taurasi Over 14.5 Points ❌ Taurasi had 13 points.