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Wildcard Weekend Is Here!

Buckle. Up.

Six games over the next three days to decide the six teams playing in the divisional round next weekend, with Seattle and Denver sitting at home waiting to see how it all shakes out.

We ran back our NFL Edge Report on YouTube this week with KyleJustBets, and that’s where four of the six trends are going to come from. For the other two games, we’ve pulled the top trend by Edge. Before we begin the research, we would appreciate your feedback. Is there anything you’d like to see in the newsletter that you aren’t seeing? Let us know by clicking the box below!

Now, let’s get into it.

4:30 Saturday: Rams at Panthers

This week’s NFL Edge Report supplies the first trend of the newsletter. Check it out below; you can skip to 00:25 for the trend of this game.

8:00 Saturday: Packers at Bears

The Trend: Jordan Love, 225.5 Passing Yards

EDGE: 242.8 yards

Edge likes Jordan Love to clear his passing yards line by 17.3 yards on Saturday, and here are a few reasons why. In his last 4 games against Chicago, where he played 75% of the snaps or more (he was hurt in 1 of the 2 games against them this season and played only 39% of snaps), Love has averaged 264.0 yards per game and 253.0 yards in the two road games.

Love against Chicago, playing 75% of the snaps or more

And then there’s how this Bears defense has been playing lately. Three weeks ago, they held Love to 77 yards, but as we said, he was hurt during the game and did not finish. The week before that, they held rookie Shedeur Sanders to 177 yards. Three other quarterbacks failed to throw for 200+ yards against the Bears since October: career backup Tyler Huntley (186), early-season JJ McCarthy (150) & career backup Mason Rudolph.

The other QBs since October, and their yardage: Jayden Daniels (211), Spencer Rattler (233), Joe Flacco (470), Jaxson Dart (242), Jalen Hurts (230), Jordan Love (234, early December), Brock Purdy (second most recent, 303) & Jared Goff (most recent, 331). Those QBs have come together to average 281.85 yards against this Bears defense. Wowza.

And then there’s Love’s play before he got hurt. In his last 5 road games, playing 75% of the snaps or more, he’s averaged 277.2 yards.

Love’s L5 games on the road with a 75% or greater snap percentage

And for what is worth: last year in the playoffs, he attempted 33 passes in a loss to a pretty good Eagles defense. This year, he’s averaging 29.3 pass attempts per game, but in games with 30 or more pass attempts this season, he’s averaging 278.3 yards per game with an 88% hit rate.

Love’s passing yards with 30 or more passing attempts in a game this season

There’s no telling if his playoff passing frequency will continue, but if this game turns out to be two teams chasing each other back and forth on the scoreboard, the pass attempts could get up there.

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1:00 Saturday: Bills at Jaguars

The trend for this game can also be found in this week’s NFL Edge Report, and it’s a rare under (!) from KyleJustBets. Check it out below; you can skip to 03:12 for the trend of this game.

4:30 Saturday: 49ers at Eagles

And for this game, skip to 01:49 on the video above. Hint: it’s A.J. Brown 👀

SNF: Chargers at Patriots

The Chargers D is no joke - they’re pretty, pretty good - especially in the later stages of the season. But a good defense always has one chink in its armour, and the Chargers’ chink is kickers. Because they stop the ball on the ground and through the air from making its way into the endzone, kickers have a freakin’ field day with this team, especially recently,

The Trend: Andy Borregales, 1.5 Field Goals

Four of the last five kickers to face the Chargers have had 2 or more field goals, and the only one that missed is arguably the best kicker in the NFL, Brandon Aubrey. In that game, he only had one attempt.

Recent kickers vs the Chargers

The other interesting data point we found while researching this trend is in this data list - and here’s a hint, it’s the one that looks the best for this prop

  • Andy is averaging 1.6 made field goals per game this season, with a 46% hit rate against this field goals made line.

  • At home, his hit rate drops to 44% and his average stays steady at 1.6.

  • But on primetime, he’s averaging 2.8 made field goals with a standout 100% hit rate. Boom.

Borregales’ field goal data on primetime this season

Can he come through?!

MNF: Texans at Steelers

Ending things off, going back to the NFL Edge Report one last time. This is going to be an ugly game; it’ll be bitterly cold, but Jaylen Warren’s reception line is still 1.5…take a listen to why we like it below! Skip to 04:25.

Kyle & Mike’s Super Bowl Picks

Just for fun, we gave out our Super Bowl picks at the end of the video. Skip to 04:54 if you’re interested! Leave us a comment on YouTube of your Super Bowl matchup & winner.

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

See you Sunday!

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