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The Big Friday Newsletter is Going Over

Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve been tracking how NFL player props have been headed. Week one they went heavily toward the under, but every week since they’ve been leaning more toward the over, we’re going to bank on that continuing. Every trend in this newsletter is an over, except one.

NFL Trends

We start with the surprise of the NFL season, the 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.

Steelers/Colts 1 PM: Najee Harris Over 17.5 Rush Attempts

Harris has been over this line in 2 of his first 3 games this season, and the only one he missed he attempted 17 rushes. The Colts rushing defense has been non-existent this season, ranking 31st in the league, allowing 179 rushing yards per game. Mike Tomlin is going to run this ball all day long, and Harris will be the beneficiary.

Vikings/Packers 1 PM: Justin Jefferson Over 79.5 Receiving Yards

The Packers’ defense has been pretty efficient against the run this season, but their efficiency against the pass has left plenty to be desired. They’ve given up 84 yards to DeVonta Smith, 56 yards to Alec Pierce, and 73 yards to DeAndre Hopkins, and rank 22nd in the NFL against the pass this season. Jefferson has been over this line in 2 of the 3 games with Sam Darnold under center, and this matchup is good on paper for JJ.

Jaguars/Texans 1 PM: Joe Mixon Anytime TD

The Jaguars allowed three different Bills running backs to score on Monday night, and De’Von Achane found the end zone against them in week one. They’re tied for the 4th most rushing touchdowns allowed to start the season and this is a great spot for the Texans offense to find their stride.

And we know Mixon has been on the injury report, but he was at practice Friday, a good sign he may suit up on Sunday. If not, this would void.

Saints/Falcons 1 PM: Alvin Kamara Over 65.5 Rushing Yards

Kamara has destroyed this line all season long, rushing for 83, 115, and 87 yards this season. We think he must be chomping at the bit to get a shot at this Falcons defense, who have given up a ton of yards to all the running backs they’ve faced through the first three weeks.

They’re currently averaging 150 rushing yards against per game in 2024.

Rams/Bears 1 PM: Kyren Williams Over 18.5 Receiving Yards

Since Puka Nacau went down in week one, and Cooper Kupp went down midway through week 2, Williams has become the central point of the Rams offense. He has 27 receiving yards in both weeks 2 and 3, and the 4 main receiving running backs to face the Bears this season have gone over this number (two of them, in Tennesse, went over this combined in week one. Williams is not in a duo situation in LA like we’re seeing in Tennesse).

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Eagles/Buccaneers 1 PM: Mike Evans Anytime TD

Evans doesn’t have a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, and before that, he had a touchdown in 9 of 18 games with 14 touchdowns in that stretch. So far this season the Eagles have given out passing touchdowns to number-one wide receivers like free candy.

This Eagles secondary has not been good against WR1’s, and Evans is an elite red-zone receiver. He has a touchdown in 13 of 22 games with Baker under center and has only gone three games in a row without a TD once with Mayfield as his QB.

Bengals/Panthers 1 PM: Trey Hendrickson Over 0.5 Sacks

A must-win game for the Bengals? Check. They’re 0-3, they cannot afford to fall to 0-4.

A brutal offensive line in Carolina? Check. Bryce Young was sacked 6 times in two games before being benched, and Dalton was sacked twice last week.

The best pass rusher on the Bengals? Check. Hendrickson already has 3.5 sacks this season and will have plenty of opportunities to make it 4.5. He’s also good to go Sunday after landing on the injury report earlier in the week with an illness.

Broncos/Jets 1 PM: 👀

You’ll have to watch our NFL Best Picks on YouTube for @KyleJustBets Broncos/Jets trend:

Commanders/Cardinals 4:05 PM: 👀

You’ll find @KyleJustBets’s pick for the Commanders and Cardinals game in the YouTube video above, too.

Patriots/49ers 4:05 PM: Brock Purdy Over 28.5 Passing Attempts

Brock Purdy has gone over this line in all three games this season.

And you have to think it becomes 4 in a row against a Pats defense that’s given up 608 passing yards over the last two weeks, with the two QBs they’ve played attempting 79 combined passes.

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Browns/Raiders 4:25 PM: Brock Bowers Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

Bowers has hit this line in every game, even hitting with only 4 targets last week. The Browns gave up 63 yards to second-year tight end Brenton Strange last week, and 37 to Dalton Schultz the week before. Davante Adams is the top receiver on this Raiders team, but Bowers has become Gardener Minshew’s safety blanket.

Chiefs/Chargers 4:25 PM: This trend will be on our Instagram story at 11 AM Eastern on Sunday. Follow us here:

Bills/Ravens 8:20 PM: James Cook Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts

Titans/Dolphins 7:30 PM Monday: Tony Pollard Over 50.5 Rushing Yards

Seahawks/Lions 8:15 PM Monday: Tony Pollard Over 50.5 Rushing Yards

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Tuesday Recap

1-3 on Tuesday, 191/370 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 51% hit rate.