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Eight for 8
Lets not waste any time: there are eight games in the NBA tonight, and we’ve (or our partners) have researched a betting trend for each game. And of course, you’ll find our NHL cheat sheets from WallaBets towards the bottom of the newsletter.
No frills or long explanations in today’s newsletter…
Let’s get into it.
NBA Trends
Denver at Washington
Spencer Jones, 6.5 Points, EDGE: 7.0
Jones is only averaging 6.3 points per game this season with a 38% hit rate up against this line. But his role has expanded recently, and he’s averaged 30.4 minutes in his L5, playing 29 or more minutes in 4 straight. And when he plays 30+ minutes, he’s averaging 12.5 points per game with an 82% hit rate.
Jones points when he plays 30 or more minutes this season
Its also worth noting that he has 7 & 16 points in the two games verus bottom 5 defensive teams this season when playing 29 or more, and his matchup tonight against Washington has him going up against the 26th ranked team in points allowed to opposing small forwards.
Houston at Philadelphia
Charlotte at Orlando
Collin Sexton, 15.5 Pts + Reb, EDGE: 15.8
Sexton has averaged 16.8 points and rebounds per game this season, with a 63% hit rate against this line this year.
Sexton’s points and rebounds data this season
Here are some quick facts for Sexton and this prop:
He’s facing Orlando, who rank 29th in points and rebounds defense against opposing point guards. In games against bottom 5 teams, he’s averaging 17.3 points and rebounds per game, with a 67% hit rate.
In back-to-backs this season, he’s averaging 17 points and rebounds this season with a 63% hit rate.
LaMelo Ball is questionable. He played yesterday, so the chance of him playing seems light. Without Ball, Sexton is averaging 17.3 points ands reobunds with a 67% hit rate.
Golden State at Dallas
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Chicago at Minnesota
Julius Randle, 21.5 Points, EDGE: 22.5
Randle is averaging 22.4 points per game this season with a 50% hit rate and 21.8 points at home, with a 52% hit rate. But more importantly, he’s averaging 25.9 with a 71% hit rate against bottom 5 defensive teams.
Randle’s points data against bottom 5 deensive teams in terms of points allowed to opposing PF’s
He is day-to-day, so keep an eye on his status, but the matchup is a good one.
San Antonio at Utah
Miami at Portland
Deni Avdija, 6.5 Rebounds, EDGE: 6.7
This one isn’t about the edge, or defense rank, or home/road splits - this is all about his history against his opponent. Deni faces the Heat, who rank 15th in rebounds allowed to opposing small forwards, with 60% of opposing small forwards clearing their line against Miami in their last 10 games. And in Deni’s last 6 games against the Heat, including one this season, he has 8 or more rebounds in 5 straight, and 9 or more rebounds in 4 straight.
Deni’s head-to-head data against Miami
He needs 7 boards tonight, can he do it?
LA Lakers at LA Clippers
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