In partnership with
Opening Day and the NBA
The day is here, and baseball is underway! Paul Skenes didn’t make it out of the first inning, Brandon Lowe has two home runs, and 8 games have not yet seen their first pitch. We won’t have MLB trends in today’s newsletter, but we do have the return of our MLB ‘Hot Bats’ cheat sheet from @WallaBets on X. Click here to jump to that point.
With MLB here, our tool has been updated with the new, fresh features for this season. To highlight some of those, check out our MLB tutorials below. First, the pitching prop tutorial:
And the batter prop tutorial:
Now, let’s get into some NBA data.
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Three Games, Three Trends
NOP @ DET: Duncan Robinson, 12.5 Points
Robinson gets a great matchup tonight, facing a Pelicans team that ranks dead last in points allowed to opposing shooting guards. Robins has played 5 games this season with these parameters:
without Cade Cunningh
And against teams that rank in the bottom 5 of points allowed to opposing shooting guards
In those 5 games, he’s averaged 15.8 points per game with an 80% hit rate, scoring 12 points in the only game he went under.
Robinson in games this season without Cade, against weak defenses
The Pistons have played 5 games since Cade went down with his lung injury, and in 4 straight games, Robinson has played 27 or more minutes. This season, when playing 27 or more minutes, he’s averaging 13.2 points per game with a 58% hit rate, and 14.5 points per game at home with a 68% hit rate.
Robinson at home when playing 27 or more minutes per game
And in games against bottom 5 shooting guard defenses, playing 27 or more minutes, Robinson is averaging 16.2 points with an 80% hit rate over 5 games.
NYK @ CHA: Karl-Anthony Towns, 1.5 3PTM
Karl-Anthony Towns faces off against Charlotte, who rank 29th in 3-point defense against opposing centers. When KAT plays teams that rank in the bottom 5 of 3-point defense against opposing centers, he’s averaging 2.1 made threes per game with a 67% hit rate.
He also has great head-to-head data against Charlotte; he’s averaging 3.3 made threes with an 86% hit rate.
Volume is important - in his last 10 games, he has 4 or more 3PTA’s in 6 games. He has 3 or fewer attempts in the other four games. When he attempts four or more threes this season, he’s averaging 2.1 made threes this season with a 63% hit rate, and in his last 5 games with four or more attempts, he’s averaging 2.2 made threes with an 80% hit rate.
SAC @ ORL: Wendell Carter Jr, 19.5 Points + Rebounds
Carter Jr gets a great DvP matchup as well. The Sacramento Kings rank 29th in points + rebounds allowed to opposing centers, and Carter Jr eats when facing defenses that can’t control opposing centers.
Carter Jr is against those bottom 5 ranked defenses, and how many minutes he played in each game
In his 10 games against those teams this season, he’s averaging 21.5 points + rebounds per game, and when playing 20 or more minutes in those games, he’s averaging 22.9 P&R with an 89% hit rate.
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