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Packers, Commanders on TNF
Data for three TNF player props & the BvP Matchups for MLB
Michael Mohorovich
September 11, 2025
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Week Two Is Here!
We’re locked and loaded for the second Thursday Night Football of the season. Usage trends are clearer after Week 1, and lines can still be a step behind. In our Props.Cash research for today’s newsletter, two props jumped out that we thought the newsletter community may find interesting.
Those two props are:
Jayden Daniels Longest Pass – Under
Daniels can complete the long ball, no doubt about it. But there’s some data worth pointing out. We’ll get into it.Austin Ekeler Receptions – Over 2.5
Ekeler is Daniel’s safety net, and there’s some good data from last week’s game between Green Bay and Detroit.
We’ll break down the numbers, matchups, and usage trends behind each of these picks to help you prep for tonight’s game.
Jayden Daniels, Longest Pass
His longest pass prop line is 34.5 yards, and although he’s averaged a longest pass of 40.4 yards per game in his career, on the road, that ticks down to 34.8.
Daniels’ Longest Pass on the road last season
More importantly, the Packers don’t give up a lot through the deep ball:
In their last 5 games dating back to last season, the longest reception they’ve given up was 37 yards to Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings on December 29th.
They have held 16 of the last 17 quarterbacks they’ve faced under this line.
Quarterbacks vs the Packers in their last 15 games
Daniels is elite, so there’s always a risk to a pass long prop like this, but the matchup will make it difficult for him.
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Austin Ekeler, 2.5 Receptions
Ekeler had 3 receptions on 3 targets in week one, and in his last 20 games with at least 3 targets, he’s cleared this line 75% of the time, averaging 3.8 receptions. He’s also cleared this line in 8 straight road games with 3+ targets, averaging 3.9 in his last 10 on the road under those parameters.
Ekeler’s last 10 games on the road with 3 or more targets
The matchup is juicy; the Packers gave up 14 receptions to the Lions running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery last week.
Both Montgomery and Gibbs cleared this line last week vs GB
And to tie that into the targets data from above, Gibbs had 10 targets, Montgomery had 4 targets - let’s hope the Commanders read a bit into that playbook.
NFL Best Bets Video
Looking for another well-researched, well-thought-out play for Thursday Night Football? We dropped our NFL Best Bets video on YouTube this morning, and @KyleJustBets had a solid play for tonight’s game between the Packers and Commanders. Check it out below!
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Batter vs Pitcher Matchups, September 11th
🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups - Sept 11th 🔥
⚾ Judge vs Holton: 9 HRR in L3 vs a lefty starter 💣
⚾ Soto vs Luzardo: 2+ HRR in 8 of L9, hitting .400 overall 👀
⚾ Harper vs Peterson: .364 AVG in 26 PA’s vs Peterson 💥
⚾ Rodríguez vs Soriano: Red hot - hitting .348 in L5 🔥
Batter vs Pitcher Matchups, September 11th