On Friday night, the Charlotte Hornets and the Orlando Magic will fight for the final spot in the East. Framed another way, they’ll fight for a spot to lose quickly to the Detroit Pistons.

In the West, the Golden State Warriors & Phoenix Suns battle for a chance to lose quickly to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Before we get into some NBA data, the final night of the NHL season has so much on the line for the Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks, and LA Kings. Yes, all three have booked playoff spots, but now all three get to play separate games with the chance to avoid the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.

It should be fun.

And then there’s Major League Baseball, which has 10 games on the schedule, with three underway before this newsletter hits your inbox.

We have data and trends for all three leagues below. Let’s get into it.

In three games against Orlando this season, Miller has cleared 19.5 points twice, with 15/20/25 points across the three games. The Magic’s defense against small forwards has opened up scoring opportunities for Miller - they rank 28th in points allowed to the position.

Across 11 games this season against teams that rank in the bottom five of points allowed to small forwards, Miller is averaging 21.8 points with a 73% hit rate against this line, 19.5 points per game.

He also scored 23 points in Charlotte’s first play-in game against Miami.

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Curry was so good in the Warriors’ first play-in game, and admittedly, there’s not a ton of data to point at when writing up this trend. Except this: in their first must-win play in the game, he attempted 12 threes, hitting 7, and finishing with 35 points.

For Steph, those 12 attempts may not seem crazy. But this year, he’s only averaged 11 attempts per game, and the 12 attempts from the other night have only been repeated in 17 other games this season.

If we see that volume again…

Volume is the key. He’s averaged 34.7 points this season when attempting 12 or more threes. For what it’s worth, in three games against Phoenix this season, he’s attempted 12, 9, and 11 threes.

Three games, one trend. These games are going to be great tonight with all three teams hoping, playing, and praying for the chance to avoid playing the Avalanche and only having their season extended by 8 days. If you know, you know:

And across those three games, the best player in the league has one set of data that jumps off the page.

When McDavid plays bad teams, he makes it known. The Canucks allowed the most points in the league to opposing forwards, and although they’ve been able to shut him out so far with just three points in three games, his numbers recently against bad teams are ridiculous.

In his last 5 games against teams that rank in the bottom 5 of points allowed per game to forwards, he’s averaging 3.0 points per game. And those last two games, the two most recent, were without Leon Draisaitl, which he’ll be without again tonight.