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Historical Data: Player vs Players

While it's easy to identify players with strong head-to-head stats against the opposing team they’re playing, we wanted to go a step further in our analysis for today’s newsletter. Here’s our process:

1. Identify Key Matchups: We start by pinpointing players who have impressive head-to-head performances against the team they're facing that night.

2. Factor in Player Availability: Next, we assessed any potential absences or changes in player availability that could impact the matchup, ensuring we're looking at the most accurate and relevant data.

3. Apply Contextual Filters: After applying these adjustments, we dove into the numbers to see if the data still supports a clear over/under-pick that aligns with our insights—ensuring we’re sharing data that’s relevant for tonight’s slate.

4. Seasonal Relevance: Once we’ve highlighted the head-to-head matchup and shared the data, we went a step further by showing you how that trend applies to the player’s performance this season. This ensures the insights are not only historically solid but also timely and relevant to their current form.

The Matchups

With that said, these were the players and matchups we settled on:

• Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards: Alperen Sengun vs Jonas Valanciunas

• LA Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Davis vs Derek Lively II

• Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets: Kristaps Porzingis vs Nikola Jokic

Rockets vs Wizards: Sengun vs Valanciunas

In our research, there are two things about the Alperen Sengun/Jonas Valanciunas matchup that we discovered. Sengun has solid numbers for points & rebounds, and not-so-great numbers for assists when playing against Valanciunas.

Although he’s been under this points & rebounds line in 3 of his last 5 matchups, its the matchup earlier this year that sticks out. He racked up 44 points and rebounds, and its not surprising considering the Wizards are the worst defensive team against centers, allowing 44.05 points and rebounds to the position per game.

On the other side of the coin, Sengun hasn’t been able to rack up as many assists in this matchup.

He’s been under this assist line in 4 of his last 5 matchups against Valanciunas, including 3 assists earlier in November. Lately, Sengun has not been a great disher, averaging 3.6 assists per game over his last 5.

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Lakers vs Mavericks: Davis vs Lively II

Derek Lively II is getting most of the minutes at center right now, outplaying Daniel Gafford. And now with Gafford on the mend, Lively will solely get the Davis matchup tonight - a matchup that has not gone so well for Lively in back-to-back meetings.

Last season, Davis racked up starts of 48 & 49 PRA against Lively. Overall, the Mavs are a bottom ten defense vs power forwards when it comes to point and rebounds, another positive for Davis tonight. And they’ve allowed the most PRA over the last 5 games in the entire NBA.

Lastly, over his last 5 games, Davis is averaging 45 PRA when playing 30 minutes or more.

Celtics vs Nuggets: Porzingis vs Jokic

This matchup was the most interesting one we found; Kristaps Porzingis has Nikola Jokic’s number.

In their last 5 matchups, Porzingis has averaged 31.2 points and rebounds against Jokic, including a monster game last March. This season, the Nuggets are a bottom 10 team in points and rebounds against centers, allowing 38.9 points and rebounds per game to centers.

Lately, Porzingis has been in and out of the lineup because of injury management, but when he plays 20 or more minutes per game this season Porzingis has averaged 26.5 PRA, going over his line tonight in 73% of his starts.

Staying Hot in the NHL: Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl has been absolutely unstoppable lately, displaying elite scoring form across multiple games and situations.

• He’s found the back of the net in 6 of his last 10 games, totaling 7 goals over that stretch.

• Draisaitl is currently riding a 4-game goal streak, with 5 goals during that span.

• On the road against the Bruins, he’s scored 4 goals in his last 3 games.

• After two days of rest, Draisaitl has netted a goal in 8 of 11 games, racking up 10 goals in that stretch.

Can Draisaitl stay hot tonight?! He very well could against a Bruins team that has allowed 16 goals over their last 4 games, and been outscored 16-10 in that stretch.

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See you Thursday!