In partnership with

Pace Quickens in the NBA’s Second Round

In today’s edition, we dive into a key takeaway from Game 1 of the Cavs vs. Pacers series—and highlight some data trends that could give you an edge heading into Game 2. Plus, we’ll give you a rapid-fire breakdown of the three other playoff matchups across the NBA and NHL. And don’t miss our MLB head-to-head data sheet at the bottom of the newsletter.

Cavs vs. Pacers: Game 2

Game 1 didn’t go as the oddsmakers expected. The Cavaliers entered as 8.5-point favorites but left with a surprising 9-point loss. That result might seem like a shock, but Indiana had already won the regular season series 3–1, with wins by 15, 2, and 8 points. Cleveland’s lone victory? A 10-point win was powered by a 59-point explosion from Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.

So, what did Game 1 tell us?

• Balanced Attack: Six Pacers scored in double figures—exactly the kind of depth that wins in the playoffs.

• Top-Heavy Cavs: Three Cleveland players scored 20+ points, but it wasn’t enough to close the gap, with two starts scoring less than 10.

• Big Men, Big Problem: Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley combined for 32 points—but were a combined -29 on the floor.

We combed through the data in game one and found one major data trend that stood out - not only in game one, but in all 5 games between these two teams.

Jarrett Allen

Field Goal Attempts and the Correlation With Cavs Wins

Let’s establish a baseline. This season, Jarrett Allen has averaged 7.7 field goal attempts and 5.5 makes per game in all situations. In Cavaliers wins, those numbers tick up slightly—8.1 attempts and 5.8 makes. But in 5 games against Indiana? He’s been far less involved: just 4.6 attempts and 3.0 makes per game across the season series. The Cavs' win-loss splits are telling—when Allen is actively engaged offensively, they tend to win. When he’s passive and not getting touches, their chances drop off sharply.

In the 71 games this season where Jarrett Allen has taken 6 or more field goal attempts, the Cavaliers have won 58—an impressive 81.6% win rate. Contrast that with the 16 games where he’s taken 5 or fewer shots: just 10 wins, a 62.5% win rate.

The trend is clear: when Allen is actively involved in the offense, the Cavs are significantly more likely to win.

Now, let’s look at how engaged he’s been specifically against Indiana this season—here are his field goal attempt numbers in each game:

The Cavs need to find a way to get their big man more involved tonight.

Learn AI in 5 minutes a day

This is the easiest way for a busy person wanting to learn AI in as little time as possible:

1. Sign up for The Rundown AI newsletter

2. They send you 5-minute email updates on the latest AI news and how to use it

3. You learn how to become 2x more productive by leveraging AI

Sign up to start learning.

Head-to-Head Across The Other Games

There is one more NBA game, Golden State versus Minnesota, and two games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs - the Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals series get underway, and the Edmonton Oilers play game one in Vegas. Let’s start with Curry vs Edwards

GSW/MIN: Buddy Hield, 9.5 Points

In game 7 against Houston, Hield racked up 33 points, so he enters the second round on a major high and has a great history against Minnesota. This season, in 4 meetings against the Timberwolves, Hield averaged 15 points per game, going over this line 75% of the time.

CAR/WSH: Alex Ovechkin, Anytime Goal

Ovechkin has 5 goals in his last 5 games against Carolina and in only one of those games he failed to score.

In 4 of those 5 games, the 4 that he’s scored, he had 4 shots on goal or more. This season, when Ovechkin has 4 or more shots on goal, he’s scored 66% of the time, with 30 goals in 23 games (5 multi-goal games).

EDM/VGK: Connor McDavid, 2.5 Shots on Goal

Connor McDavid has gone under this line in 2 of his last three games against Vegas, but two of those three games were in Edmonton, and for whatever reason, McDavid loves to shoot the puck in Vegas.

McDavid has 18 total shots in his last three games against Vegas in Vegas, going over this line in all three games. In the first round against LA, McDavid averaged 3.8 shots on goal, going over 2.5 shots on goal in 4 of 6 games.

MLB Head-to-Head Data

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

See you Thursday!