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Moving On, Staying Alive

5 teams in the NBA & NHL can move onto the second round, and 5 other teams are fighting for their lives tonight. That’s the focus of today’s newsletter; one betting trend for each of those games, with a mix of trends from the teams looking to punch their ticket and the teams hoping to stay alive and force game sixes.

NBA

MIL/IND: Giannis Antetokounmpo, 45.5 Pts & Reb

Even those the Bucks are down 3-1 in this series, Giannis has been spectacular. He’s averaged 48 points and rebounds per game in this series, going over this line in 3 of the first 4 games.

And now, he doesn't have Dame. Lillard is out for the season with a torn Achilles and without Dame, Giannis has averaged just 42.5 points and rebounds per game without him this season, going over this line in just 35% of the 17 games Dame didn’t play. But on the road, that hit rate jumps to 50%, with the average basically staying steady at 42.7 points & rebounds.

In the two games without Dame this season against Indiana, including one of the four playoff games, he had 66 & 48 points and rebounds against the Pacers.

DET/NYK: Cade Cunningham, 26.5 Points

Take. Good. Players. To. Do. Good. Things.

That’s the theory at least.

Yes, he’s averaged 25.8 points per game in this series, going over this line just once. But - he loves playing in New York.

In 4 games in New York, he’s averaged 29.75 points this season, going over this line in 3 of 4 games. And with their backs against the wall, we’re thinking that Cade can find more success in the bright lights of Madison Square Garden.

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ORL/BOS: Payton Prichard, 8.5 Points

Prichard has played 52 minutes in the last two games and has scored three points. Its hard to imagine the 6th man of the year having such bad performances in back-to-back games, but it all comes down to a lack of shooting. He’s only attempted 4 field goals in those two games, COMBINED. He averaged 10.2 field goal attempts per game this season, and we’re banking on him having some progression in game 5.

Before this bizarre set of games, where he’s just not shooting, Prichard has averaged 13.4 points this season, going over this 8.5 number 65% of the time.

NHL

OTT/TOR: William Nylander, 0.5 Goals

Nylander doesn’t have a goal in three straight games, and with the Leafs looking to close it out, someone from the core 5 (Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Knies) is going to come out flying. We’re leaning toward Nylander, and it’s all because of his performance in game 4.

He had 6 shots on goal in game 4 off of 10 shot attempts, and he led the Leafs in goal this season for a reason. It’s also worth noting that he’s only gone 4 or more games without a goal twice this season.

He also has a goal in 2 of his last 3 home games against Ottawa.

NJ/CAR: Jacob Markstrom, 25.5 Saves

Markstrom has gone under this number in three of four games so far, but he’s narrowly missed in all three games that he went under.

But this one caught our eye because of our colleague, @WallaBets, pointing out the Devils might have some key injuries tonight in the shot blocking department.

Pesce and Siegenthaler have combined for 20 blocked shots thus far, and Markstrom might be in tough without them tonight. Pesce especially, who has 14 of those blocks, and Markstrom without Pesce this season is an interesting chart.

He’s cleared this save line in 83% of the games without Pesce, so keep an eye on his injury status tonight before considering this trend.

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See you Thursday!