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This Week & Strikeouts

Welcome to our first baseball-only newsletter of the season! Thursday's focus will shift back to Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final (EDM vs FLA) and Game 1 of the NBA Finals (Indiana vs. OKC), once we’ve got some data from Wednesday night’s NHL opener.

But for today, we’re zeroing in on strikeout props, spotlighting the top three projections from the Props.Cash model and analyzing why the model likes what it likes. You can also find our MLB head-to-head data sheet at the bottom of the newsletter.

MLB Strikeouts

Christopher Sanchez, PHI vs TOR

Strikeout Line: 4.5
Projection: 6.2
Projection Difference: 1.7

Christopher Sanchez has cleared this 4.5 strikeout line in 6 straight starts, and in 8 of his last 10, averaging 6.3 strikeouts per game in that 10-game stretch. Overall this season, he’s averaged 6.4 strikeouts, clearing this line in 9 of 11 games.

He’s in the 80th percentile for K% this season in baseball, with a 27.6% strikeout rate. As for his opponent, he gets the Blue Jays, who don’t strike out a ton. This season, they rank 24th in K% vs lefty pitchers, and 17th over their last 15 games. And there are 6 players on the Blue Jays with experience against Sanchez and the strikeout rate for two of those players is 33.3% or higher, with two others at 16.7 K%.

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Zac Gallen, AZ vs ATL

Strikeout Line: 4.5
Projection: 6.2
Projection Difference: 1.7

Gallen has gone under this line in 4 straight starts, and under in 67% of his starts this season while averaging 5.5 strikeouts per game. But that number is heavily inflated by his second start of the season, where he racked up 13 K’s. He’s only averaging 4.8 strikeouts per start without that game.

So, why does the projection model like him so much? The Braves rank 12th in K% over their last 15 games against right-handed pitchers and have 5 players in their projected lineup with strikeout rates of 20% or higher versus righties this season.

Several players have decent experience versus Gallen, and 2 of those have high strikeout rates against him (Riley, Ozuna 29.4% vs Gallen).

Landen Roupp, SF vs SD

Strikeout Line: 3.5
Projection: 4.2
Projection Difference: 1.2

Roupp has averaged 5.1 strikeouts per start this season and has gone over this 3.5 line in 87% of his starts and in 3 of his last 5 starts overall, including a 7-strikeout performance in his last start.

With some of those numbers, it’s no surprise he’s liked by the model. But he does have a very difficult matchup. The Padres rank 28th in strikeout rate versus righties this season, and 16th in their last 15 games. The top three players in the Padres lineup (Tatis Jr, Arrraez, Machado) have strikeout rates under 15% against righties, and none of the players in the lineup have K rates over 25% against righties.

It’s a tough matchup, but Roupp did have 4 K’s versus the Padres on March 30th, narrowly clearing this line.

MLB Head-to-Head Data Sheet, June 3rd

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups — June 3rd 🔥

⚾️ Aaron Judge: .500 vs Bibee (7 PA) — 2 1B, 2B. 2+ TB in 67% of games vs RHP, 3+ HRR in 56%.
⚾️ Rob Refsnyder: .455 vs Kikuchi (12 PA, all singles). .310 vs LHP. He snapped his hitless streak on Monday.
⚾️ TJ Friedl: .375 vs Peralta — 3 1B, 2B, HR. 2+ HRR in 8 of 10, 3+ in 4 straight at home. 🔥
⚾️ Freddie Freeman: .375 vs Megill (16 PA, 6 1B). .388 vs RHP this season. 💪

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See you Thursday!