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Props.Cash NBA Projections

It’s been a while since we used the newsletter to analyze the Props.Cash projection model, so we’re doing that today! We’re going to look at one of the top players, by projected difference (the difference between the players’ line and our projection), on these six props:

• Points

• Rebounds

• Assists

• 3 Pointers Made (3PTM)

• Combined Points, Rebounds and Assists (PRA)

• Double-doubles

Let’s get into it!

Points: De’Andre Hunter

Although three players are ahead of him in the projections, we’re focusing on De’Andre Hunter for this one.

From our research, we identified two reasons the model likes Hunter tonight. First, he’s coming off a season-high 35-point performance last night, and the Atlanta Hawks have so many injuries that Hunter will continue to get big minutes tonight.

Hunter attempted a season-high 21 shots, 8 of them from three, shooting 57% from the floor and 50% from three. He's also averaged 4.8 free throws per game this season and managed to get to the line 8 times on Monday night.

And then on the injury front, Hunters’s biggest competition for minutes in the front court, Jalen Johnson, is out indefinitely. He was injured on January 23rd against Toronto and will remain out while he undergoes further testing on his shoulder.

Hunter is averaging 18.8 points per game this season when Johnson plays, and 20.9 when Johnson is out. But more than that, his points line tonight is 17.5, and when Johnson plays he’s been over that in 62% of his games, and that hit rate jumps to 71% with Johnson out.

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Rebounds: Kelly Oubre Jr.

We’re highlighting the top player from the projection model tonight, 76ers small forward Kelly Oubre Jr.

In our research, there were three glaring reasons the model likes Oubre Jr. tonight; he’s had two back-to-back games with insane rebounding output, he gets a great matchup against the Lakers, and Joel Embiid remains out.

Although Oubre Jr has averaged just 6.1 rebounds per game this season, in his last two games, Oubre Jr has 25 rebounds (13,12). In his last 5 games, he’s averaging 8.4 and in his last 10, he’s averaging 7.1.

Secondly, the Lakers allow 7.9 rebounds per game to small forwards, 24th in the NBA. 53% of small forwards have gone over their rebound line against the Lakers in their last 10 games.

And someone has to rebound for the 76ers, right? Joel Embiid remains out with knee inflammation, and Oubre Jr’s hit rates with Embiid in or out have a 10-point swing.

Assists: Jalen Green

The projection model is only projecting two players to go over their assist prop by more than 1 assist, and we’re going to focus on the top player on that list, Jalen Green.

In our research, we identified three likely reasons that Green is favored by the projection model.

1. His last 10 games.

2. His matchup with the Hawks tonight.

3. His previous head-to-head data against Atlanta

First, in his last 10 games, he’s averaged 3.8 assists per game compared to his season average of 2.8. His last 5 games are even better, averaging 4 assists per game.

And he has a great matchup tonight to continue his hot play, with the Hawks giving up 5.37 assists per game to shooting guards, 4th most in the NBA.

This is a matchup he’s exposed in the past, averaging 4.6 assists per game in his last 5 games vs Atlanta, highlighted by a 10-assist performance last season.

3PTM: Fred Van Vleet

There is only one player the model has projected to go over their 3PTM line by 1 or more, and that’s Green’s teammate Fred Van Vleet.

And in our research, we saw a lot of similarities with Greens assists:

1. Recent hot play

2. A solid matchup against Atlanta

3. And we also think it’s like that it took into consideration his play in back-to-backs.

Fred Van Vleet is averaging 2.8 made threes per game this season, but over his last 10 games that has jumped to 3.7 and a staggering 4.6 in his last 5 games.

The model obviously likes him to continue that tonight against a Hawks team allowing 3.35 three-pointers made to point guards (5th most in the NBA) and the second highest 3-point percentage in the NBA to point guards (34.01%).

And then there’s FVV in back-to-backs this season. His 3PTM line is 2.5, a line he’s been over in 5 of 6 back-to-backs this season, averaging 3 made threes in those games.

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PRA: Deni Avdija

In the PRA section of Props.Cash, only four players had a projected difference of 1.5 or better for their PRA tonight, and leading that charge was Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija.

And it’s not a surprise, considering how much Avdija has turned in on over his last 20 games. His PRA average this season is 24.5, and over his last 20 games, his average has climbed to 28.9.

Tonight the Trail Blazers play Milwaukee, and with a spread of 5.5, the model is likely projecting a close game. When Avdija plays 30 or more minutes, his PRA average skyrockets to 30.1.

And then there’s his matchup. The Bucks average 34.88 points, rebounds, and assists to opposing small forwards, 5th most in the NBA.

Double-Doubles: Amen Thompson

The top two players on the double-double dashboard by projected difference are Giannis Antentokoumpo and Anthony Davis, but both have dreadful odds. The next player on the list has much better odds, Amen Thompson.

Why does the model like a player who has a double-double in just 31% of his games this season? Because lately, Thompson has been a double-double machine, with a DD in 6 of his last 10 games.

In that stretch, Thompson is averaging 19.2 points and 11.5 rebounds, compared to his season averages of 13.7 and 8.1, respectively. What’s changed for Thompson to see those averages climb that much? Minutes! He's averaging 30.9 this season, and an incredible 39.9 over his last 10 games.

He also gets a great matchup against the Hawks, who allow the most points and rebounds to small forwards in the entire NBA.

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See you Thursday!