In partnership with

Strikeouts, Strikeouts, Strikeouts

Batters are usually the focus of the Props.Cash newsletter. Every once in a while, we like to mix in a pitcher-centric newsletter when the projections or a specific data set catch our eye. Today is one of those days!

The Props.Cash projection model for strikeouts has three pitchers that caught our eye - two of them because of the overall projections, and one of them because of their projections against their betting line. Those three pitchers are:

• Tarik Skubal, Detroit

• Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia

• Bryce Elder, Atlanta

Let’s get into the data and the analysis, with Elder up first.

Bryce Elder, Projected Over His Line By 0.8 K’s

Elder’s strikeout prop is 3.5 tonight, and the Props.Cash projection model has him finishing with 4.3 K’s.

He’s averaged 3.8 Ks over his last 5 starts, 4.4 Ks over his last 10 starts, and 4.3 Ks this season over his 19 starts, going over this 3.5 line in 10 of 19 games (53% hit rate).

In 2024, he had 6 Ks against the New York Mets, but we can’t put much weight behind that with a lot of the lineup different from that May 2024 game. More importantly, the Mets rank 20th in K’s percentage versus right-handed pitchers this season, and the projected Mets lineup has 4 hitters (the 6 through 9 hitters) with strikeout rates above 24% against right-handed pitchers.

Even though the projection model likes Elder, the Mets’ recent play (averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 5) and Elder’s recent play lines this up for a bit of a potential sweat.

Burned out by the news? There’s a better way.

Outrage headlines. Never-ending feeds. Everyone shouting, no one listening.

Keeping up with political news today can feel more like emotional labor than staying informed. That’s why Tangle exists.

Tangle is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter that covers one major political story each day. It breaks down the facts, shows how the left, right, and center are talking about it, and adds clear, honest analysis — without the spin, hysteria, or bias.

No sides to pick. Just clear, honest analysis from an independent source — all in under 10 minutes a day.

More than 400,000 readers — no matter their politics — trust Tangle to get the full picture and stay informed without getting burnt out.

If you’re tired of feeling overwhelmed by the news — but still want to understand what’s really happening — give Tangle a try.

Start reading for free today.

Jesus Luzardo, 6.5 Strikeouts

Luzardo could be lined up for a pretty good outing. Over the last 30 games, the Nationals have the 3rd highest strikeout rate in baseball versus left-handed pitchers, and dating back to his first start of the season, Luzardo took advantage of this matchup once before.

Those 11 strikeouts in March came at the expense of a few hitters; 7 of the 9 projected batters in the Nationals lineup have at least 2 plate appearances versus Luzardo, and 5 of those batters have strikeout rates above 30% versus Luzardo - CJ Abrams has the worst head-to-head strikeout rate, with a 50% K rate in 10 plate appearances.

As for Luzardo, he is averaging 5.8 Ks in his last 5 starts, 5.8 Ks across his last 10 starts, and 6.3 Ks overall this season, eclipsing this 6.5 strikeout line in 12 of 24 starts.

Tarik Skubal, 8.5 Strikeouts

The projection model likes Skubal the most - he has the second most K’s in the American League, one behind leader Garrett Crochet, and opposing batters are hitting just .193 vs Skubal this season, 3rd best in the American League.

For his strikeout prop, he needs 9 K’s tonight, and this is how his averages stack up:

• He’s averaging 7.8 Ks over his last 5 starts

• He’s averaging 8.2 Ks over his last 10 starts

• He’s averaging 8.1 Ks across his 23 starts this season, going over this 8.5 line just 9 times (39%).

Skubal faces the Minnesota Twins, who are a bit hard to get a handle on. Although they rank 11th this season in strikeouts to lefties and 10th over their last 10 games, the lineup changed so much after the trade deadline that the best way to understand the Twins is by looking at them at the smallest possible sample size. In their last 5 game overall, they’ve struck out in 30% of their at-bats as a team.

Skubal's history vs Minnesota is strong, too. He had a season high of 13 strikeouts versus the Twins on June 29th, and there are 5 batters in the Twins’ projected lineup with K rates 25 percent or higher versus Skubal in their careers.

Last note: although he’s only averaging 7.8 Ks over his last 5 starts, he did touch double digits in 2 of his last 4 starts. The average is weighed down by a strange 5-strikeout start.

Daily News for Curious Minds

Be the smartest person in the room by reading 1440! Dive into 1440, where 4 million Americans find their daily, fact-based news fix. We navigate through 100+ sources to deliver a comprehensive roundup from every corner of the internet – politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a quick, 5-minute newsletter. It's completely free and devoid of bias or political influence, ensuring you get the facts straight. Subscribe to 1440 today.

Sign up now!

Batter vs Pitcher Matchups, August 14th

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups - August 14th 🔥

⚾ Pete Alonso: .424 AVG L8, 4.0 HRR avg 💣
⚾ Juan Soto: .300 AVG L8, 3.12 HRR avg 🔥
⚾ Brenton Doyle: .326 AVG vs LHP, 2.6 HRR avg L5 🚀
⚾ Ketel Marte: 14 HRR in L2 - 5.0 HRR avg L5 😳

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

See you Tuesday!