Props.Cash Newsletter: It's a Basketball Weekend

A Quiet Weekend in Sports Off the Court

NFL? Pro Bowl.
NHL? All-Star Break.
The NBA & NCAA? Full steam ahead! We’ve highlighted some trends for Thursday night.

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

Evan Mobley Points

Mobley’s point line at 9.5 is surprisingly low…

Yes, he’s missed in 2 of his last 4 games but he’s hit at an 87% rate this season, an 80% clip in his last 10. Plus, he hit this in both career games against Memphis last season. Even if you look at an alternative line for this trend at 12.5, he’s still above 70% for the season and has gone over in 11 of his last 15.

LeBron James 3PTM

The Celtics are one of the better teams at defending the 3-ball and he did miss this line against the Celtics earlier this season but that was an all-around bad game for LeBron. He shot 5/14 from the floor and 1 for 2 from three. Recently it’s been a different story for LeBron from behind the arc.

100% hit rate in his last 5 games, 80% hit rate in his last 10, a big-time matchup on TNT? Sign us up. He’s also averaging 5.4 threes per game this season, so he’s getting the looks.

Jaylon Tyson Points

There’s a reason Jaylon Tyson was just named a top ten finalist for the Julius Erving Award - he can ball. Tyson is averaging 20.6 points per game, which is 17th in the nation. His line for Cal’s game against Arizona today? Just 16.5 as some books.

Tyson has cooked this line, going over 74% of the time this season and in 9 of his last 10 games. Arizona is a tough matchup, the number one team in the Pac-12 beat the Bears by 19 on December 29th but they couldn’t hold Tyson back, he still had 22 that night.

Brice Williams Assists

The only other top-25 game of the night is number 6 Wisconsin in Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers and guard Brice Williams, who’s been moving the ball well this season.

That’s a lot of green. He’s managed two assists in 76% of his games this season and 71% of the time at home. This is the second meeting between Wisconsin and Nebraska and Williams cooked in the first matchup on January 6th, with 6 dimes.

Using Projections to Find Unders

We don’t disclose how our projections are calculated, and remember they are just projections, but let’s use them to find some value in the “under” for Thursday night.

Tobias Harris has only gone over this line in 14% of his games this season, and even with Joel Embiid likely out, our model doesn’t like this spot for Harris. In the 10 games Harris has played without Embiid this season, he’s only gone over this line in 30% of them.

Isaiah Hartenstein has been rebounding well in his last 10 games, but he’s in tough against the Pacers, and our model knows it.

They’re a top-10 rebounding team with Myles Turner leading the charge. The last two centers to play against the Pacers and have a rebounding line of 10.5 or more (Joel Embiid January 25th and Jusuf Nurkic January 26th) both went under.