Props.Cash newsletter: Our filters are your friends

Tracking the impact on lines with certain filters in place.

Author

props.cash
December 14, 2023

Use our filters to track relationship between stats and prop performances

If you haven’t put our filters to use yet, you really should start playing around with them! There are a multitude of sliders you can tinker with, setting minimum or maximum thresholds for varying metrics and seeing how prop hit-rates change when those conditions are met.

We’ll use Stephen Curry as an example, looking at the relationship between his minutes played and points prop.

In games without Draymond Green, Curry sees an uptick in minutes, averaging 34.5 across the past two seasons, more often than not playing 34+ minutes.

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If you then drop the “without Draymond Green” filter, you can slide that minutes tab over to a minimum of 34 minutes, just to see how Curry does against his points with that type of role.

Curry is averaging 32 points per game in the past 57 games in which he logs 34+ minutes, hitting tonight’s line at a 75% rate.

Another example: Darius Garland. Cleveland is facing a Celtics team allowing the seventh-most threes per game, so it’s at least worth exploring the Cavaliers shooters.

Garland has just a 34% hit-rate against this ‘3PT Made’ prop over the last two seasons.

A look under the hood shows you a player who has recently started chucking up far more threes, with 17 attempts in his last two games, and fresh off a 4-8 night from deep against this very same Celtics team.

A look at Garland’s history against Boston shows you a guy who has never been shy in letting them fly. He’s chucked up 7+ threes in each of the past four games, three times sporting a .450% shooting percentage (or better) from long range.

To us, that suggests a level of confidence that could carry over into tonight’s game. If for a moment, we work under the assumption that Garland keeps up that volume, it’s amazing how appealing his threes prop starts to look.

He’s gone over 2.5 made threes in 73% of his games since the start of last season when he gets off 7+ 3PA.

As with anything, there is a level of assumption and projection here. It’s no sure thing that Garland will get off that volume, nor is it guarantee that Curry plays for 34+ minutes tonight.

What Props.Cash aims to do is make it easier for you to identify these potential trends and roles, and then study their relationship with various prop lines. If you feel good about a guy’s volume, play around with some filters to see how consistent he becomes when operating on those levels.

Good luck on the search!

Let’s explore Austin Ekeler tonight

Keenan Allen is out tonight for the Los Angeles Chargers, and as their top weapon in the passing game, that suggests a whole bunch of volume is up for grabs.

A quick look over to Austin Ekeler’s receptions without Keenan Allen grabs your attention, as he’s gone for 6+ catches in six of the past seven games sans Allen, averaging 8.8 targets/game.

Well, that looks great! And at +110! Could we stop there?

You most certainly could, but sometimes it can behoove you to dive into the second level for NFL props.

A bet on Ekeler’s receptions is as cut and dry an assumption as there is: you expect him to catch 5+ passes.

When Ekeler does record that volume, here’s how he’s fared against his receiving yardage line:

That’s a clean 20/21 success-rate against tonight’s line with those receptions in tow, so suddenly, maybe the best pivot is the yards. After all, Ekeler is averaging 55.1 yards/game in such games, which includes a 51-yard average in two previous meetings against the Raiders when he logged 5+ catches.

A bit more exploration on the Props.Cash page starts to show a consistency: running backs are going over their lines against this Raiders defense.

By all means, consider receptions. However, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a more direct relationship between props than we have with receptions and receiving yards.

If you start to get drawn to a player’s reception prop, challenge yourself for a moment to check out how he performs against his yardage total when he hits that certain criteria.

You may just find some ladder potential along the way.

Hunter Renfrow Receptions

Hunter Renfrow has cleared his “Receptions” prop in three of his last five – While on this streak, Renfrow is logging three Receptions/G while seeing 3.6 Targets/G. The Chargers defense ranks 29th in the NFL – Over his L4 vs LAC, Renfrow averaged 3.8 Receptions/G

Austin Ekeler Rush Attempts

Austin Ekeler has hit his “Rush Attempts” prop in seven of his last 10 – Through his L10, Ekeler is putting up 13.6 RushAttempts/G. He now gets the Raiders who give up the 7th most RushYards/G – Ekeler has 14+ Rush Attempts in three of his L4 matchups vs LV

Jrue Holiday Rebounds

Jrue Holiday has grabbed six or more “Rebounds” in eight of his last 10 – Across this span, Holiday is averaging 6.6 Rebounds/G. He now gets the Cavs who are allowing the 5th fewest Rebounds/G – Holiday failed to hit this number in three of last four games vs CLE

Mikal Bridges 3PT Made

Mikal Bridges is over his “3PT Made” prop four his last five – Through these L5, Bridges is knocking down 2.8 3PTM/G on 5.4 3PTA/G. The Nuggets are allowing the 5th fewest 3PTMG while having the 13th lowest Opponent 3PT%