Props.Cash Newsletter: Is Jokic or Gilgeous-Alexander Your MVP?

MVP Race Center Stage Thursday Night

MVP favorite Nikola Jokic is home to the Miami Heat & the guy chasing him, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is on the road in San Antonio. Before we get into one trend for each MVP candidate, check out our 2nd half season pass pricing ($69.99) here. 

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Nikola Jokic 47.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Nikola Jokic has only gone over this line in 54% of his starts this season, and an almost 50/50 trend isn’t something we’d usually highlight. But his home split is what makes this attractive.

He’s hit this in 61% of his games this season in Denver - that’s more like it. And even better is that in his last three home games against Miami, Jokic hasn’t missed.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 5.5 Rebounds

Gilgeous-Alexander has only hit this half the time this season, 51% to be exact. But it’s his matchup that makes this a little more appetizing for us. Plain and simple, the Spurs are a terrible rebounding team.

And his history against them is encouraging, hitting this line in both games against the Spurs previously this season.

Our Projection Model

Let’s put our projection model to the test this week: here’s the top point projection, assist projection, and rebound projection for tonight’s slate.

Deni Avdija 14.5 Points

Avdija has missed 3 straight games but if he suits up Thursday against the Lakers, our model likes this spot for him. The last couple of quality small forwards to suit up against the Lakers; Kawhi Leonard, Grayson Allen, and Andrew Wiggins, have hit this line.

And Avdija was cookin’ before he got hurt, crushing this line in 4 of his last 5 before hurting his heel.

Cody Martin 3.5 Assists

Martin is the only player on our dashboard that the model projects will eclipse his line by more than 2 assists, projected for 5.62 on a line of 3.5.

Admittedly, the data over the season isn’t great. He’s only hit this on a 42% clip this season but recently it’s been a bit better, hitting in 6 of his last 10 games.

Miles Bridges 6.5 Rebounds

We’re staying with the Charlotte Hornets, with the model liking Bridges spot against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Bridges has hit this 55% of the time this season and he’s even better at home, with a 63% clip on home court.

NHL Trends for Thursday

Auston Matthews 0.5 Goals

Everyone knows how this trend has been going, Matthews is on another level this year. But we wanted to highlight it because he hasn’t scored in back-to-back games, and Matthews hasn’t had a three-game drought since late November. Can he keep that going against his hometown team tonight?

Sean Monahan 1.5 Shots on Goal

Even after the trade deadline, it may be hard to find a trade that’s worked better this season than Sean Monahan and Winnipeg. Since being traded there on February 2nd he’s scored six goals in nine games and he’s hit his shots on goal prop in 7 of the 9 games he’s played.

Brandon Hagel 0.5 Points

Can Brandon Hagel keep it going?

Hagel is rocking a 14-game point streak, just four games shy of tying the Tampa Bay Lightning point streak record set by captain Steven Stamkos. His numbers against the Sabres are encouraging, too.