March Madness, Baby!

What is the most exciting day of the sports calendar? It’s a question with many potential answers but Thursday of March Madness would absolutely be a part of the conversation. There are sixteen games on day one and we’re here to give you one trend from each game. (Note: This newsletter was sent out at 12:00 ET, and the first game is at 12:15 ET)

Now, let’s get into it.

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12:15 ET: (9) Michigan St vs (9) Mississippi St

Josh Hubbard (Mississippi State) Over 19.5 Points

Hubbard has not hit this line well this season, but we’re riding with the hot hand. He was stellar in the SEC tournament, and he‘s gone over this line in 7 of his last 10 games averaging 25 points per game in that span.

12:45 ET: (11) Duquesne vs (6) BYU

Noah Waterman (BYU) Over 4.5 Rebounds

Waterman has been over this line in 66% of his games this season and he’s hit this in 6 of his last 10.

Plus, Duquesne is not a great rebounding team. They come into the tournament ranked 184th in the nation.

1:30 ET: (14) Akron vs (3) Creighton

Mason Miller (Creighton) Over O.5 3PT Made

Miller averaged 1.3 made threes per game and averaged 2.6 attempts per game, and the forward has undoubtedly cooked this line this season. He’s hitting at 73% for the season and he’s gotten at least one three in 6 of his last 10 games.

2:00 ET: (15) Long Beach St vs (2) Arizona

Keshad Johnson (Arizona) Over O.5 3PT Made

The spread for this game is -20.5, and Arizona should score with ease here. This is a David v Goliath game, with a top-three offense in the nation rolling up on a team with a defensive rating outside the top 150. Johnson has had at least one three in 67% of his games this season and he has one in five straight games.

2:45 ET: (16) Wagner vs (1) North Carolina

Tahron Allen (Wagner) Over 0.5 3PT Made

North Carolina is going to win this game, and probably by a large margin. They’re 24.5-point favorites, so Wagner may be forcing shots to try and stay in it. Allen attempts 2 threes a game and he’s hit at least one in 58% of his games this season and in 7 of his last 10.

3:10 ET: (14) Morehead St vs (3) Illinois

Riley Minix (Morehead State) Over 27.5 Pts + Reb

If Morehead State pulls off the upset, it’ll be on the back of Riley Minix. He’s the core piece of this team, averaging 20.8 PPG and 9.8 RPG, so we’re highlighting his points+rebounds line. He’s clipped this at a 62% rate this season and in 9(!) of the last 10 games.

4:00 ET: (11) Oregon vs (6) South Carolina

N’Faly Dante (Oregon) Over 15.5 Pts

We’re looking at a similar storyline to Morehead State: if Oregon pulls off the upset, N’Faly Dante will surely play a big role. He was a beast in the Pac-12 tournament, going over this line in 4 of his last 5 games and capping off his tournament with a 25-point, 9-rebound performance.

4:30 ET: (10) Nevada vs (7) Dayton

DaRon Holmes 11 (Dayton) Over 21.5 Pts + Ast

We’re riding the hot hand here. Holmes was stellar during the A10 tournament, hitting this line in 4 straight games. He’s shooting the ball well in that span and getting to the free throw line a ton with 16 and 14 attempts in his last two games.

6:50 ET: (10) Colorado St vs (7) Texas

Isaiah Stevens (Colorado St) Under 24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast

We’re fading Stevens here because of his recent play and the step up in competition. A Big 12 team like Texas is a big step up from the teams Stevens played in Mountain West, and against those teams, he’s gone under in 4 of his last 5 games.

7:10 ET: (14) Oakland vs (3) Kentucky

Antonio Reeves (Kentucky) Over 22.5 Pts + Ast

Antonio Reeves leads this Kentucky team in points per game, and against a lesser opponent like Oakland, Reeves should be in a spot to hit the over. He’s gone over this line in 7 of his last 10 games, 4 of his last 5, and in nearly 60% of his games this season.

7:25 ET: (12) McNeese State vs (5) Gonzaga

Graham Ike (Gonzaga) Over 23.5 Pts + Reb

There are going to be people who disagree with this, but Graham Ike is going to dominate McNeese State today. Their best rim protector, Christian Shumate, is 6’6 and Ike is a force in the paint. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, I think Ike will cook this line. He’s been over this line in 56% of his games this season and has hit in 7 of his last 10.

7:35 ET: (15) South Dakota St vs (2) Iowa St

Zeke Mayo (South Dakota St) Over 1.5 3PTM

If South Dakota State is going to have any chance of knocking off a 2 seed, Zeke Mayo is going to need to ball out. He averages 5 points more per game than his next teammate, and he’s been shooting the ball exceptionally well from three lately. The attempts are there, too. He’s gone over this number in 74% of his games this season and in 7 of his last 10.

9:20 ET: (15) Saint Peter’s vs (2) Tennessee

Dalton Knecht (Tennessee) Over 5.5 Reb + Ast

Tennessee is a heavy 21.5-point favorite here, and Dalton Knecht is a big part of why. He was just named the SEC Player of the Year, and although he leads Tennessee in points per game, we’re on his Rebounds + Assists line here. He’s gone over this in 65% of his games this year and 11 of his last 15 (73%).

9:40 ET: (11) N.C. State vs (6) Texas Tech

Michael O’Connell (N.C. State) Over 7.5 Points

Mitchell O’Connell was a huge part of why N.C. State won the ACC tournament and upset North Carolina. He was able to up his game when it mattered most, hitting the over on this line in his last 5 games. Before the tournament, he had only gone over this line in 4 of 31 games. We’re hoping O’Connell can stay hot in the round of 64.

9:55 ET: (13) Samford vs (4) Kansas

Achor Achor (Samford) Over 15.5 Points

The injuries for Kansas are kind of crazy, and Samford plays at such a fast pace that Achor Achor should be able to continue his hot play today. He’s gone over this line in 56% of his games this year and in 6 of his last 10. Achor leads the Bulldogs in points per game, so if Samford is going to play upset here, Achor will undoubtedly play a big role.

10:05 ET: (10) Drake vs (7) Washington State

Andrej Jakimovski (Samford) Over 5.5 Rebounds

Drake isn’t a good rebounding team, ranked 200th in the nation and 323rd in the nation in offensive rebounds. Jakimovski is a 6’8” forward averaging 5.5 rebounds per game this season, so this may be tight. But with his average and Drake’s lack of rebounding prowess, we like this spot for Jakimovski. Plus he’s been over this line in 52% of his games this season and gone over in 3 of his last 5.