Props.Cash Newsletter: Super Bowl, Super Bowl, Super Bowl!

Author

Michael Mohorovich
February 08, 2024

Super Bowl 58 is Here

Patrick Mahomes vs Brock Purdy
Travis Kelce vs George Kittle
Andy Reid vs Kyle Shanahan

Super Bowl Sunday is almost here and we’ve got a newsletter full of trends and data for you. Let’s go!

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George Kittle Receiving Yards

The data suggests two things about this receiving yards line for George Kittle: he’ll blow past it, or get nowhere near it. He’s clipped this line in 7 of his last 10 games and in 6 of those he’s gone over this line in 18 yards or more. But the three he missed, he missed big time.

He’s also gone over 61% of this season and there’s that great clip of him when they lost the Super Bowl in 2020, he may just roll on Sunday.

Elijah Mitchell Rushing Yards

This one is simple:

If Mitchell gets even one touch, he has a great chance of going over. He didn’t get any touches against the Packers and went under. But in four of his last five games where he did get a touch, he went over this number.

Brock Purdy Longest Pass

Here’s to hoping for big plays in the Super Bowl, right? Purdy has been taking shots all season long and we’re manifesting more big plays on Sunday. He’s gone over this longest pass number in 8 of his last 10 games and 67% of his games this season.

The Chiefs have given up a pass this long in two of the past three weeks: a 54 pass to Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers in the AFC Championship game and a 53-yard pass to Tyreek Hill from Tua Tagovailoa during Wild Card Weekend.

Deebo Samuel Receptions

There’s no denying Deebo Samuel’s talent, and because of his talent, he has the potential to go over this number in any given game but the data heavily suggest he'll easily go under.

In the five games before the NFC championship game, Samuel went under this number and he’s gone under in 7 of his last 10. Overall on the season, he’s failed to catch the ball 6 times in 81% of his games.

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards

Aside from big receiving games against Las Vegas & Cincinnati, Pachecho hasn’t come close to this receiving yards line in his last 10 games.

And the 49ers have not given up many receiving yards to running backs in the playoffs this year, with David Montgomery coming closest to eclipsing this line in the NFC Championship game.

Brock Purdy Pass Attempts

Look at this graph. This line being this high is really surprising. With Christian McCaffrey being the focal point of Kyle Shanahan’s offense all season long, Purdy has gone under this line 83% of the time this season and 80% in his last 10 games.

Stephen Curry Rebounds

As Kawhi Leonard says, the board man gets paid. Curry has hit this line in 4 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 10. Plus, 62% of the time this season.

Jalen Duren Assists

Duren has COOKED this assists line. 74% this season, 70% in his last 10 games, and 80% in his last 5. Plus, Portland is ranked 20th in assists given up this s

Dylan Strome Shots on Goal

Dylan Strome has been firing the puck this season, having at least two shots on goal in 63% of his games this season and hitting this line in 7 of his last 10 games.

Nazem Kadri Points

Vitek Vanecek has a .888 save percentage, a 3.23 goals-against average, and has given up 12 goals in his last three games. Nazem Kadri has points in 8 of his last 10.