Letting NFL defensive rankings guide our Thanksgiving direction

Happy Thanksgiving from props.cash!

Thanksgiving is all about food, family and football. We’ve got three NFL games on the table for Turkey Day, and as such, we figured it’d be best if we hit you a day early with the trends and takeaways we’re seeing.

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Packers vs. Lions

For our regular users, we’re sure that you have seen and put to use the defensive rankings available in every sport. If you’re looking for a way to launch into some research, it’s a logical place to start.

Against Detroit, there isn’t a ton of green to invite you into an angle, but their 1.6 passing touchdowns allowed per game sticks out. That ranking makes some sense. The Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season, often piling up points and forcing the opposition to turn to the air. Their secondary has certainly had its holes, and if you are thinking of a Packers prop for Thursday, a passing touchdown might be the move.

Rather than look to one of the many wide receivers on Green Bay, might we interest you in some Jordan Love? Check out how Love has performed at his passing touchdowns prop on the road this season.

At +120, it’s certainly an intriguing path to take on the Packers end this week.

Green Bay’s defensive vulnerability is quite clear: it’s on the ground. The Packers are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-most rushing attempts on average and the 10th-most yards per rush. That’s all the metrics we’d want to see to feel good about a rush defense target.

David Montgomery has been eased back into action in his first two games since his injury, seeing 12 carries in each game. This week, Montgomery’s rush attempts line is set at 15.5, and you may notice above that he took a monster 32 carries against the Packers in late September.

Montgomery is surprisingly not as successful against this 67.5 rushing yards line as you might think in games in which he takes 15+ carries. However, the past two games he has gotten that workload, he’s exceeded 100+ yards, one of which was against Green Bay. Oh, and looking back a bit further, you see a game last season vs. the Packers in which Montgomery also saw significant volume and turned it into a 120+ yard day.

Might Montgomery be a good ladder candidate to get Thanksgiving started? He’s finished with 76 and 116 yards the past two games.

Commanders vs. Cowboys

For the afternoon game on Thanksgiving, it’s quite clear that we need to attack Washington with passing props. The Commanders rank among the worst in the league in passing yards allowed, pass attempts seen, passing touchdowns allowed, pass yards per attempt and yards per completion.

It doesn’t get much better than that.

It would be easy enough to simply take that info and run to Dak Prescott’s passing yards over, and by all means, consider that if his prop trends look good to you. It’s hard to ignore the run CeeDee Lamb has been on, averaging 131 yards per game over his last five.

Lamb showed up on the injury report this week but was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, suggesting he’s good to go.

Wide receivers have had some big games against the Commanders this season, evidenced by the below.

This read also applies to other WRs on Dallas like Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup.

Rather than focus on some green here for a Washington prop, let’s flip it and dig into some of that menacing red. One stat really shines through here, that being Dallas’s interception rate coming in at #1 in the NFL.

Washington QB Sam Howell is fresh off a 3-INT game against the Giants and has now thrown a pick in six of his last nine games. He tossed an interception in a meeting with Dallas last season, and considering Howell is tied for the NFL lead with 12 INTs, it seems like a good bet the mistakes continue on Thursday.

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49ers vs. Seahawks

Teams are throwing the football at the third-highest rate against San Francisco, which makes sense when you consider that the 49ers have an elite run defense and tend to build up leads against the opposition.

In that vein, some volume props on the Seattle end might be best as we look to wrap our Thanksgiving games right.

Tyler Lockett has averaged 7.4 targets per game this season and has eight catches in back-to-back home games. Against the 49ers, the shifty Seattle WR has 6+ receptions in four straight, three times seeing 7+ catches in.

Recent WRs have seen success with their receptions prop vs. SF.

When considering what path to take on the San Francisco side, that rushing touchdowns allowed number is an easy one to consider. The 1.1 rush TDs allowed/game ranks 24th in the NFL, and we know all too well that the Niners have a RB who loves to find the end zone.

Christian McCaffrey has a touchdown in 18 of his last 19 games, and he’s scored in two straight vs. Seattle. Yes, this prop is juiced, but that doesn’t make it a bad play paired with something else when you consider the matchup.

And in just a few minutes, we were able to dig into all six teams playing on Thanksgiving and find a prop angle based on the defenses opposite them.

It can be that easy for any and all sports on props.cash, so be sure to sign up today, and good luck this week!

NBA Trends for Tonight

NHL Trends for Tonight