Props.cash newsletter: Using H2H data in NBA, and new NHL markets opening

Using head-to-head hit-rates to get NBA props on your radar

We’ve got two NBA in-season tournament games tonight, the two semi-final matchups from the East and West. Based on the level of play from players, it’s clear this in-season idea from the league has been a smashing success.

If you’re looking to get some action on the night, sometimes it can be as simple as looking to some “vs. Opponent” hit-rates to guide your research. We’ll never sit here and claim that just because a player has hit a lot against a team means they’ll do it again, but the manner in which they’ve done so is important to dig into.

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One has to dig into this Indiana vs. Milwaukee game. Both teams play fast and have elite offenses and weak defenses. It’s a recipe for plenty of points.

When filtering the point props in this game by ‘vs. Opponent’, you see that many guys from tonight’s game have gone over at a consistent clip against the other.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a name worth talking about. His points line has been climbing this morning, which might look odd when you see his season average.

The presumptive reason in our book is what he’s done to Indiana in past meetings, including a game in early November.

There’s some monster games in here, including 54(!!) points against the Pacers this season.

Recent PFs to see the Pacers have done well against their point prop, and Jayson Tatum is also worth flagging, having dropped 32 against Indy on Tuesday.

Can Giannis replicate his scoring output in this semi-final game?

CJ McCollum has himself a beautiful floor of 5+ assists this season. If you wanted to go a safer route in this Western Conference semi-final game, McCollum to keep creating is a nice look. There’s reason to think he can cross this 5.5 threshold and then some against the Lakers.

Los Angeles allows the 11th-most assists/game this year, and recent PGs have pretty steadily hit 7+ dimes against them of late.

But as you might guess, we only stumbled onto McCollum’s assists because of how he’s fared against the Lakers, going to show that again, starting with how a player has done against an opponent can be a solid launching off point.

McCollum is an intriguing ladder candidate tonight, having dished 7+ assists in two straight games and hitting that number in four straight vs. the Lakers.

A big reason for his recent uptick appears to be his minutes, as the Pelicans point guard has logged 38.1 and 35.9 minutes in his past two.

Over the last two years, when McCollum is on the floor for 36+ minutes, he’s over 5.5 assists at a 63% clip, averaging 6.2 assists/game.

Put H2H data to use for your daily NBA props! Hop into the dashboard today and see what you can find.

Slowly but surely, SGPs are becoming more regular for NHL prop bettors

It’s been a slow grind, but we’re finally starting to see Same Game Parlays for NHL props become more mainstream. DraftKings is starting to allow SGP of props like Shots on Goal and points (in some states), while ESPN Bet allows you to SGP props from different markets, i.e. a point prop with an assist prop. Then Bet365 exists, allowing you to parlay anything you want, and FanDuel has been ahead of the curve on SGP for Shot props.

It’s the combining of point and assist props that’s worth flagging today. Few things are as correlated in hockey like points from players that tend to skate on the same line.

More than that though, if there’s a game you think looks good for goals from one side, you could find two consistent contributors on those teams and SGP them to each log a point.

Take Boston for example.

The Bruins are hosting the Buffalo Sabres tonight, a team allowing the 10th-most goals per game. Boston should be able to find the back of the net at home, and there’s quite a few players with rich prop success against Buffalo.

Perhaps you see that David Pastrnak, Boston’s top shooter, has scored in four straight against the Sabres and seven of the past nine meetings. That looks good, but the -145 price on a goal prop is less than ideal.

Welcome Pavel Zacha to the play.

Zacha skates alongside Pastrnak on Boston’s top line and top power play, and he’s recorded a point in nine straight home games, and each of the last four games that the Sabres have come to Boston.

If Pastrnak scores, it’s very likely that Zacha was involved in some form.

It’s something to keep in mind with your NHL bets moving forward. The market is starting to evolve, and teammates producing points together in inviting matchups is a strategy worth delving into further.

Find yourself some consistent player trends for tonight’s game and try out some plays!

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