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NFL Player Props Shift From Week One to Two, MLB Trends Inside

Author

Michael Mohorovich
September 17, 2024

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NFL Trending Under

The story of week one was the under, and that story wrote another chapter in week 2. Unders are still hitting, but not quite at the same rate as week 1!

Position and Line

# of Players Who Qualified

Over

Under

Change From Week One

QB’s, 199.5 Passing Yards or Higher

23

8

15

6 fewer qualified players, 72% went under in week one, 65% went under in week two

RB’s, 39.5 Rushing Yards or Higher

29

19

10

2 fewer players qualified, 52% went under in week 2 compared to 61% in week 1

WR’s, 49.5 Receiving Yards or Higher

25

12

13

5 fewer players qualified, 52% went under in week 2 compared to 70% in week one

TE’s, 29.5 Receiving Yards or Higher

12

6

6

The same number of qualified players, 83% went under in week one and that dropped sharply to 50% in week two

There’s a massive swing between week one and week two, with player props against these lines for these positions going over at a much higher rate than they did a week ago. Possibly a trend to keep an eye on as the season progresses 👀

Look out, MLB teams may have let Bobby Witt Jr. get hot again…

Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Bobby Witt Jr. has 15 combined hits, runs, and RBIs over his last three games, and today he has an outstanding matchup.

Witt Jr has gone over this line in 2 of his last 3 games

Witt faces Casey Mize, and although the sample size is small, Witt has dominated Mize in his career. Through 8 plate appearances, Bobby has 2 singles, a triple, a home run, and 4 RBIs against Mize. Mize has also been smoked by righties this season.

Righties have hit Mize to the tune of a.314 average

Christian Walker Over 2.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs

We’re willing to bet Rockies pitcher Ryan Feltner woke up this morning and shook at the thought of facing Christian Walker.

Walker has a single, two doubles, two home runs, and 6 RBI against Feltner

Walker has only been over this line twice in his last 10 games overall, but he’s been over this in 8 of his last 10 against Colorado.

Walker has dominated the Rockies recently

Nick Pivetta Over 6.5 Strikeouts

One of our partners, @SpadePrizePicks, had a great write-up for Pivetta today. Check it out below:

Another one of our partners, @NextLevelBets, had another great write-up for Diana Taurasi today.

Diana Taurasi Over 14.5 Points

Check it out below ⬇️

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Friday Recap

8-6 with one void, 180/343 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 52% hit rate.

NFL Sunday and Monday Recap

CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions ❌ Lamb went for 90 yards, but had only 4 receptions.

Mark Andrews Under 39.5 Receiving Yards ❌ Andrews had 51.

Brian Robinson Over 68.5 Rush+Receiving Yards ✅ 133 rush yards, 3 receiving yards.

Justin Herbert Under 29.5 Passing Attempts ✅ Herbert only had 20, easy.

Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts ✅ With Willis under center, Jacobs rushed 32 times.

Sam Darnold Under 230.5 Passing Yards ❌ Darnold had 268.

Trevor Lawrence Under 225.5 Passing Yards ✅ Lawrence had 220 passing yards, a small sweat.

Kenneth Walker Anytime TD - VOID - Walker didn’t play.

Tony Pollard Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts ✅ Pollard had 17 attempts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 79.5 Receiving Yards ✅ St. Brown had 119 receiving yards.

Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions ❌ Kupp had 4 receptions before getting hurt, and now he’s headed to the IR.

Bo Nix Over 23.5 Rushing Yards ✅ Nix had 25 rushing yards.

Xavier Worthy Over 45.5 Receiving + Rushing Yards ❌ 23 total yards for worthy.

Caleb Williams Under 20.5 Pass Completions ❌ Williams connected on 23 passes.

Saquon Barkley Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts ✅ Barkley had 22 attempts.