MLB, MLB, MLB…

On a Thursday in June, with the Euro in a short break and the WNBA with only one game (not including the 1 pm game that will start after this newsletter is released), we thought we would put our MLB projection model to the test. But first…

Refer Your Friends!

Do you know any sports bettors or fans who would enjoy our newsletter? If you share the newsletter with the link below, we’ll track how many new subscribers you bring in. The more subscribers you refer, the better your chances are at several prizes. Bring in 10 new newsletter subscribers and you’ll be entered into a draw for a props.cash hoodie. Refer in 20 new newsletter subscribers and you’ll be entered into a draw to win a free year subscription to props.cash!

MLB Projection Model

You’ll find 6 betting trends below, all from our projection model. Let’s go!

A Pair of Pitchers to Start Us Off

On our site and the app, if something is green it indicates the data favors the over. The model likes two starting pitchers’ strikeout props, and they’re from the same game.

Ben Lively Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Lively has gone over this line in 10 of his 12 starts this season, and his two misses were on the road. Lively and the Guardians are home to Kansas City today.

Michael Wacha Over 3.5 Strikeouts

We’ll be the first to admit, that Cleveland’s strikeout rates don’t play well for Wacha.

We think the model likes Wacha in this spot for a couple of reasons, but his road splits jump off the page. He’s been over this line in 7 of 8 road starts this season.

A Top Prospect’s Command

Drew Thorpe, the White Sox top pitching prospect, has struggled with command in his first three starts.

Drew Thorpe Over 2.5 Walks

The projection model likes Thorpe to eclipse this line by 1.12 walks, and as we said, it’s the start of his career that’s leading to this projection.

He’s walked 11 batters in his first three starts, and gone over this line in 2 of his last 3.

A Couple of Singles

Trea Turner and Steven Kwan are two of the most consistent contact hitters in baseball.

Trea Turner Over 0.5 Singles

Turner is projected for 1.3 singles, and his matchup against Marlins starter Trevor Rogers is surely playing into the model taking a liking to Turner.

Turner is hitting .338 against lefties, and righties are hitting Rogers to the tune of a .288 average. Turner has also been a singles machine this year, hitting a single in 73% of his games this season and 82% of his home games.

Steven Kwan Over 0.5 Singles

Kwan is projected for 1.05 singles, and again we think this is a matchup play for the model.

Kwan is mashing both righties and lefties, but it’s the splits of Kansas City Royals start Michael Wacha that are more intriguing. He’s held righties to a .232 average this season, but lefties have tagged him to the tune of a .267 average. Kwan also has a single in 75% of his road games versus 65% of his home games. (The Guardians are on the road)

Rookie Hitting Machine

The St. Louis Cardinals gave Masyn Winn the starting shortstop role out of spring training, and he hasn’t disappointed. And the model knows it.

Masyn Winn Over 0.5 Hits

Winn has a hit in 72% of his games in his rookie season, and a hit in 80% of his last 30 games. We’re riding with his consistency and the model here

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

Tuesday Recap

4-3 in the last week. 90/178 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 51%

Euro Recap

Declan Rice Over 1.5 Tackles ✅ Rice had 4

Aleksandar Mitrovic Over 0.5 Shots on Target ✅ Just the one for Mitrovic, but that works.

MLB Recap

Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ The Orioles had 16 hits, 4 players had multi-hit games, and Rutschman only managed a single.

Hunter Brown Over 17.5 Outs ✅ Brown finished 6 innings, 18 outs, and we move.

Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 K’s ❌ Pitched 4 innings, gave up 6 earned runs, registered zero K’s. No words.

WNBA Recap

Sabrina Ionescu Over 24.5 Points+Rebounds ✅ Ionescu cooked, had 23 points and 10 boards.

Napheesa Collier Under 19.5 Points ❌ Collier finished with 21.