Avoiding the 2-0 Hole

Three teams in the NBA and NHL tonight; the Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, and Dallas Stars are looking to even up their second-round playoff series. It’s even worse for the Carolina Hurricanes, they’re down 2-0 heading back home after dropping both games at Madison Square Garden.

Below are trends for all four games using our projection model as a guide, plus our favorite MLB trend of the day. But first…

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NBA Trends

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, Game 2

At the time I’m writing this, it doesn’t look like Jarrett Allen is going to play in game two.

Isaac Okoro Over 9.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

And so we’re shifting our focus to another Cav that the projection model likes tonight: Isaac Okoro.

Without Allen this season, Okoro has gone over this line in 7 of a possible 9 games, including game one.

And even if Allen plays, this is still a good trend for Okoro. In games with Allen, he’s been over this line in 50 of 68 games this season (74%).

Jayson Tatum Under 42.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

The Boston Celtics might be playing the best basketball in the NBA right now, but Jayson Tatum has been under this points, rebounds, and assists line consistently lately.

Tatum has gone under this line in 12 of his last 15 games and every playoff game so far.

Dallas Mavericks at OKC Thunder, Game 2

The OKC rebuild is one for the ages - they had 24 wins two seasons ago, 40 wins last season, and 57 wins this season. And now they’re a win away from putting Luka and the Mavs in a 2-0 hole. The main reason? SGA. The secondary reason? Incredible depth.

Aaron Wiggins Over 10.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Wiggins has been given a larger role down the stretch, averaging 21 minutes in his last 15 games. And he’s been productive in those minutes, going over this points, rebounds, and assists line in 11 of 15.

And as you can see, in three of those misses, he missed by 2 or less. And this newsletter is all about the projection model, which highlighted this spot for Wiggins tonight.

Jaylin Williams Over 3.5 Points

Another one of those key depth pieces for the Thunder is Jaylin Williams, who was given 16 minutes in game one, and one last to assume that’s a contributing factor to the projection model liking Williams tonight.

Williams has been over this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 11 points in game one.

MLB Trend of the Day

Milwaukee has been a middle-of-the-pack strikeout team this season, ranked 17th in strikeouts rate against right-handed pitchers. But on April 21st, they faced Cardinals righty Sonny Gray, and he won the battle at the plate.

Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Considering what he did against them last time, this line being at 6.5 is surprising.

Gray racked up 12 strikeouts against the Brewers two and a half weeks ago. The batter vs pitcher filter tells the tail in terms of strikeout rate.

NHL Trends

New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes, Game 3

It’s no surprise to us that our projection model likes Sebastian Aho and Vincent Trochek’s shots on goal lines tonight in the Canes/Rangers game.

Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 Shots on Goal

In what is essentially a must-win game for Carolina, they’ll need their best player to come through.

He’s been over this line in 3 of their last 5 games, including 7 shots on goal in game 2.

Vincent Trochek Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

Trochek is making the case for early Conn Smythe favorite, racking up 10 points in their first 6 playoff games. And he’s been shooting the puck, too.

He’s been over his shots on goal line in 4 of his last 5 games, and he’s racked up 9 shots on goal in the first two games of this series.

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, Game 2

The Stars collapsed in game one, blowing a massive lead to trail this series 1-0. If they avoid the 2-0 deficit, the projection model likes Jake Oettinger to play a key role.

He made 22 saves in game one on 26 shots, but his head-to-head data against the Avs is an encouraging site when looking for a bounce-back performance.

Thursday Recap

NBA Recap

Donovan Mitchell Over 37.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists ✅ 44 in total for Mitchell, with 33 points, 6 boards, and 5 assists.

Derrick White Over 15.5 Points ✅ 25 points. Easy.

Josh Giddey Over 15.5 Points+Assists ❌ He started but only played 17 minutes? Weird rotation for Giddey in game one. Didn’t even come close here, finishing with 2 points and 2 assists.

Kyrie Irving Over 9.5 Rebounds+Assists ❌ Irving put up 20 points, but the Mavs were off all night. He only had 3 assists and 1 board,.

MLB Recap

Mookie Betts over 0.5 HR ❌ Swing and a miss, literally. He went 0/3. You won’t be seeing HR trends in the newsletter from now on, we’re shifting our focus to other MLB trends.

NHL Recap

Vincent Trochek Over 0.5 Assists ✅ Trochek is making a case for the Conn Smythe if the Rangers win. He got the assist and the double OT winner.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots On Goal ✅ Close, but we got it. MacKinnon ended with 4 shots on goal.

Overall Recap

Since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th, our suggested trends are 29/55 (53%).

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