WNBA Takes Center Stage Tuesday, Wednesday

The MLB home run derby is in the rear view mirror, and Cal Raleigh is your champion - not overly surprising, considering he leads baseball in home runs this season. The All-Star game goes tonight, and baseball returns Friday, so keep an eye out for the Thursday newsletter, where we’ll take a look at Friday’s game and have a second-half MLB season preview.

Our focus for today’s newsletter will rest on the shoulders of the WNBA - specifically Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Plum, two of the league’s biggest stars, and veteran Tina Charles, who have some interesting data for their games tonight.

Caitlin Clark vs the Connecticut Sun

The handcuffs have been on Clark since she returned from injury - she’s played less than 26 minutes in her three games back after averaging 33 minutes a night before her injury. Her point line tonight is 17.5, a line she’s been under in all three games since returning.

But as you can see, she was averaging 18.2 points per game before her injury, including a 20-point game against the Connecticut Sun on June 17th.

The Sun are also, well, not very good. They allow the 2nd most points to guards and the most points overall. Star players seem to be able to get it done against the Sun - Bueckers had 21, McBride had 20, and the next player we’re going to talk about, Kelsey Plum, had 23.

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Plum at Home vs the Mystics

Kelsey Plum has been much more effective on home court this season than she has been on the road, averaging 21.1 points per game in LA and almost 2 points fewer per game on the road (19.3). But this road statistic is a little misleading, it’s heavily increased by her first road game of the season, where she dropped 37. If we eliminate that game, her road average becomes 17.5, a big drop from her home average.

And now Plum is at home against the Mystic, who just allowed 20 points to Jewell Loyd and who have been one of the worst defensive teams from three in their last 5 games, where Plum has scored 60% of her points in he last 5.

Plum’s points line is 18.5, and like we said, she’s scored 60% of her points from three in her last 5 games, averaging 2.4 makes. In her last three games, she’s averaging 3.33 makes and has at least 5 attempts, and in two of those games, she had 7 or more attempts. This season, when Plum attempts 5 or more threes, she’s averaging 21.5 points and 20.8 points in games with 7 or more attempts.

The Vet: Tina Charles

The Indiana Fever are pretty good, with one exception. They give up a lot to centers, with 71% of centers covering their point line against the Fever since June 19th.

And Charles has taken advantage in the past - going over her points line in 5 straight against the Fever dating back to June 2024, averaging 21.4 points in those games, including 2 games this year with 18 & 20 points.

Added bonus for Charles’ data is that she has crazy home and away splits, averaging 19.6 points per game at home and a dreadful 12.3 on the road. Incredibly different, and this game is in Connecticut.

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See you Thursday!