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Fast and to the Point

In today’s NFL Sunday newsletter, we have two thoughts for the 1 PM window, one for the 4 PM window, and one for each primetime game this weekend.

1 PM: Passing Touchdowns vs Atlanta

The Falcons allow 1.75 passing touchdowns per game, which is 26th in the NFL. Minnesota star wideout Justin Jefferson hasn’t scored a touchdown in 6 weeks, is this a spot he can break out?

Atlanta didn’t give up a passing touchdown to a wide receiver last week vs the Chargers, but they gave up three the week prior against the Broncos.

1 PM: Saquon Has His Best Matchup of the Year

The Carolina Panthers have the worst rushing defense in the NFL by the three major metrics:

Saquon scoring one feels as close to a lock this season as you can get, but what about for two? He has 5 mulit-touchdown games this season and has as many multi-touchdown games and no-touchdown games. The Panthers have allowed three running backs - Chase Brown, Bijan Robinson, and Roschon Johnson - to score 2 touchdowns against them this season.

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4 PM: Wide Receivers, Touchdowns, the Rams

The LA Rams allow 1.25 receiving touchdowns to wideouts per game, 2nd last in the league. Unfortunately, they’re facing MVP candidate Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Unfortunately for bettors, there is no clear WR1 in the red zone for Buffalo:

• Khalil Shakir has far and away the most receptions with 60, but just two touchdowns.

• Mack Hollins only has 19 receptions, but leads the team in receiving touchdowns with 4.

• Rookie Keon Coleman is second in the team in yards per game, and receiving touchdowns.

• The game-to-touchdown ratio leader is easily the newly acquired Amari Cooper, who has 1 in 4 games in Buffalo.

Sunday Night Football: With All The Talent, Will Dissly?

The one thing that stuck out about Sunday Night Football between Kansas City and the Chargers is that there is no obvious defensive glare…unless you dig deep.

Both teams are top ten defensively in receiving and rushing touchdowns to both wide receivers and running backs. The Chargers are also top ten in receiving touchdowns to tight ends, but that’s where the data shows a hole for the Chiefs.

The Kansas City Chiefs allow 0.83 receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends this season, 18th in the NFL. A far cry away from a stat that jumps off the page, but they do allow the most yards to tight ends. Unfortunately for bettors, the Chargers don’t have an elite tight end, with Will Dissly leading the charge in most categories, and he only has 1 touchdown this year.

Monday Night Football: Chase Brown, Chase Brown, Chase Brown, Chase Brown, Cha— you get the point…

The Dallas Cowboys rushing defense has improved over the last couple of weeks, from a bottom 5 team in terms of rushing yards against to 10th in the league. Still bad, but better. The one place they haven’t improved: rushing touchdowns allowed. They still allow the third most rushing touchdowns in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown has 8 touchdowns in his last 9 games, with two games he didn’t find the end zone. In 2 of 3 primetime games on the road this season he’s found the end zone. Can they continue against this subpar defense?

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See you Tuesday!