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Three Players Struggling to Score

We dug into Props.Cash this morning and noticed three marquee players struggling mightily to score: Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen, Milwaukee cornerstone Giannis Antetkounmpo, and Atlanta Hawks star Trae Young. In today’s newsletter, we’ll dive into why that’s the case, and analyze whether or not tonight is an opportunity for them to break out.

Jarrett Allen: 15.5 Points

Allen has gone under this 15.5-point line in 17 of his last 20 games, 9 of his last 10 games, and in 5 straight.

Here are Allen’s splits, broken down by last 5, last 10, and for the season over a variety of metrics. In each player chart, we’ve highlighted the player’s best split for that metric in green.

Simply put, Allen is shooting less. He’s attempting 1.4 fewer shots per game in his last 5 games than his season average. That may sound like a small change, but when Allen attempts 6 or fewer shots, he averages just 9.1 points per game and has gone over his 15.5-point line in just 5% of games. When he attempts 7 or more, he averages 15.7 points and has gone over this line 46% of the time.

Even with his poor play, Allen is in a position to break out of the slump tonight. First off, his matchup is great. The Chicago Bulls allow 25.35 points per game to centers, second most in the NBA, and 18.35 shot attempts per game, also second most in the NBA. Allen scores a whopping 71% of his points from the restricted zone, where the Bulls allow the most points in the NBA.

And Allen should be in line for extended minutes tonight with Evan Mobley out (rest). In 6 games this season without Mobley, Allen has averaged 16.0 points clearing this 15.5-point line 50% of the time.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo: 31.5 Points

Giannis has failed to score 30 points in 6 straight games, by far the longest stretch of his season. He’s gone under this points line in 7 straight games, averaging just 25.42 points per game, a fry cry from his 30.8 average.

Here are Giannis’s splits, broken down by last 5, last 10, and for the season over a variety of metrics. In each player chart, we’ve highlighted the player’s best split for that metric in green.

Giannis has been recovering from an injury and has been on a minutes restriction, which is the most important stat here. In that time, he’s averaged 5.8 fewer points per game than his season average, he’s taking 4 fewer shots a game, and his shooting percentage is down 2.9%. He’s also not getting to the paint nearly as often, averaging 5 fewer shots than his season average, and 7 fewer points. But with his minutes consistently rising, and the restriction expected to be lifted soon, the simple question with Giannis is; can he get to the paint more tonight?

The answer should be yes. Although the Hawks are the 9th ranked defense in the paint, they’re the 3rd worst team at defending the restricted zone, where Giannis scores a ming-boggling 70% of his points. He has 4 straight 30-point games against the Hawks, 3 of which he went over his 31.5-points-line.

More shots should come with his increased minutes; he’s averaged just 16.2 attempts per game in his last 5, and when he gets that to 18 attempts per game, his point average jumps dramatically.

As you can see, with 18 or more attempts per game, he averages 33.1 points and has cleared this 31.5 line 56% of the time. When he attempts 17 or less, he averages 24.9 points and has cleared this line just 14% of the time.

Note: Giannis is probable tonight.

Trae Young: 25.5 Points

Young hasn’t scored 20 points in 4 straight games but had 38 in three straight before that. Instead of splitting Young’s metrics between the last 5, and 10, we split his between his last 4 games, his previous three when he scored 38, and his season.

Over that three-game stretch with 38 points per game, Young was attempting 9 shots more a game compared to his season average, and nearly 5 more threes per game. And in this 4 games slump, he’s shooting historically bad from three and attempting 4 fewer shots per game compared to his season average. Similar to Allen, can Young shoot more tonight?

He faces Milwaukee tonight, who allow 20.51 attempts to point guards, 4th most in the NBA. Although they hold point guards to the 10th least threes per game (8.91), they do allow the most points in the league to point guards (26.57 per game). This is a matchup that Young has taken advantage of in the past, averaging 29.5 points per game in two meetings against Milwaukee this season.

Young has to get back to shooting, too. He’s averaging just 14.3 attempts in this slump, and when he averages just 16 or more, Young manages 27.4 points per game and clears this 25.5-point line 54% of the time.

How many of the three players break out of their skids tonight?

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See you Thursday!